National Weather Service forecasters have increased confidence that an El Niño climate pattern taking shape in the Pacific will reach potentially historic strength, and that will significantly influence how much snow Connecticut gets this winter.
The weather service, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said late last week that the El Niño has a 90 percent chance of becoming a very strong event during the 2026-27 fall and winter. The agency said there's a 69 percent chance El Niño will be stronger than any event in the record dating to 1950.
El Niño's effects are already being felt across the country, though they differ from region to region.
Through early fall, the Southwest, Rockies and nearby Plains may skew wetter than normal, while the Pacific Northwest leans hotter and drier.
Parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest also may be drier into late summer, while the South and Southeast have a more mixed rainfall signal.
Along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, El Niño typically increases wind shear that can suppress hurricanes, while the eastern and central Pacific often become more favorable for tropical storm development.
The beginning of winter — Dec. 1 for meteorological winter and Dec. 21, the date of the solstice, for astronomical winter — is still months away. NOAA has already released seasonal outlooks for the coming winter, including predictions covering December through February.
The outlook places Connecticut within a broad swath of the northern and eastern United States where above-normal temperatures are favored. The signal covers essentially all of New England.
When it comes to precipitation Connecticut falls largely within an area where NOAA gives a 33%-40% above-normal precipitation for the three-month period. Areas just to the south, including portions of the mid-Atlantic, are favored to be increasingly wetter than normal.
The outlook does not predict how much snow Connecticut will receive. Precipitation outlooks include rain, snow and other forms of precipitation, and temperatures during individual storms will ultimately help determine what falls.
Private weather companies have also begun releasing 2026-27 winter forecasts.
For example, OpenSnow, a platform primarily for skiers, snowboarders and other winter enthusiasts, expects a warmer and potentially less snowy winter than normal. Its 2026-27 temperature map places Connecticut within a broad area of above-normal temperatures, while its snowfall outlook favors below-normal snowfall across much of the Northeast.
An active southern storm track is a hallmark of strong El Niño winters. OpenSnow expects the heaviest snow to shift to parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies as El Niño strengthens. Northern-tier states could see significantly less snowfall than usual, and the northern two-thirds of the country and much of Canada could see a milder-than-normal winter.
"Historically, cold air originating in the Arctic has a hard time spilling southward into Southern Canada and the U.S. during strong El Niño years," OpenSnow said. "That's not to say it won't happen, it's just expected to happen less frequently than usual."
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