The much-talked-about El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean has officially reached 'super' strength and could become one of the strongest on record, potentially reshaping Connecticut's winter weather.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center put the chances of a historically strong El Niño at around 60 percent for the overlapping October–December and November–January periods. The probability of a strong to very strong El Niño remains above 79 percent through January-March 2027.
Forecasters with AccuWeather, a private weather company, said the El Niño could rival or surpass the strongest events recorded since 1950. The climate pattern has reached "super status" only six times in 75 times
According to AccuWeather's latest winter outlook, Connecticut residents can expect a potentially milder winter with fewer prolonged Arctic cold outbreaks and below-average snowfall across much of the Northeast.
However, forecasters caution that a significant East Coast snowstorm remains possible, particularly in late January or February.
The winter effects of the climate pattern appear to be settling in one to two months early, El Niño expert Eric Webb told The Weather Company.
Albuquerque, New Mexico; Flagstaff, Arizona; and West Palm Beach, Florida, had their wettest fall to date through Nov. 4, while Chicago, Dallas, Houston and Nashville were among dozens of central U.S. cities having their warmest.
In Connecticut, the outlook suggests residents could see fewer prolonged stretches of bitter cold and less snow overall this winter.
AccuWeather is forecasting warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average snowfall across much of the Northeast, but that doesn't rule out a significant winter storm. Forecasters are watching late January and February for the possibility of a major East Coast snowstorm.
NOAA's seasonal outlook also favors warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the East, with wetter-than-average conditions possible along the Eastern Seaboard.
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El Niño involves unusually warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and accompanying changes in atmospheric circulation. NOAA said the ocean and atmosphere both showed the pattern continuing to strengthen in October.
Federal forecasters expect strengthening to continue before El Niño begins weakening in early 2027. A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of a wetter winter across the southern United States and a milder winter across much of the North, but NOAA cautioned those outcomes aren't guaranteed.
Northeast and New England: Much of the Northeast could have a milder winter with fewer Arctic outbreaks. AccuWeather forecasts below-average snow but says East Coast cities could still get a consequential storm, particularly in late January or February.
Mid-Atlantic: Below-average snowfall would still leave room for a major East Coast storm later in winter.
Midwest and Great Lakes: Warmer conditions and fewer Arctic intrusions could reduce heating needs.
Northern Plains: A milder winter is favored as El Niño limits Arctic outbreaks.
Southern Plains and Texas: An active southern storm track favors wetter conditions toward the Gulf Coast.
Southeast and Florida: Wetter weather is favored along the Gulf Coast. Florida faces an elevated risk of severe storms and tornadoes.
California and West Coast: Additional atmospheric rivers could bring flooding, landslides and substantial mountain snow.
Pacific Northwest: AccuWeather's December-February map favors drier conditions across Washington, Oregon and parts of Idaho, with the stronger Pacific storm track directed farther south.
Southwest and interior West: Wetter conditions are favored across California, the Southwest and into the southern Plains. The map places the northern Rockies closer to the warmer northern tier.
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