Connecticut Has Staggering Increase in Year-to-Year Deaths

As the Covid-19 pandemic continues to impact and disrupt families, communities and businesses across Connecticut, the Connecticut Data Collaborative (CTData) has taken an initial look at data that can provide a means of measuring the impact.

Excess deaths are deaths that occurred above and beyond what would be expected in an average year. This metric measures the temporary increase in the mortality rate of a population. The data paints a striking picture and provides a glimpse at the impact on various segments of the population – including some that have not been widely reported. CTData compared the actual death toll in 2020 to the average of the death tolls for the previous 5 years.

From the emergence of Covid-19 in March through the end of June, state data indicates Connecticut experienced a 40% increase in deaths compared to previous years. Excess deaths were highest during the peak COVID-19 months of April and May, reporting +100% and +57% increases, respectively.

Between March and June 2020, excess deaths in Connecticut totaled 4,186. Of those deaths, 4,037 (96%) were individuals 50 years of age or older. As public health experts have pointed out, Covid-19 generally presents lower-risk to younger individuals and higher-risk to older individuals.

Death rates in youth and young adults were largely unaffected by Covid-19, while death rates among older adults (60+ years of age) increased by about 100% or higher in the peak month of April.

The population of individuals in the middle (aged 30-59 years) has largely been overlooked in public conversations, despite seeing excess deaths ranging from 40% to 71%.

The data also indicate starkly that certain communities were impacted more than others. In April 2020, compared to previous years:

• Individuals 60 years of age and older experienced double the number of deaths.
• Black individuals experienced over triple the number of deaths.
• Black individuals 80 years of age and older experienced over four times the number of deaths.

Overall, deaths in Connecticut increased by 100% in April 2020 and 57% in May 2020. However, Black and Hispanic deaths significantly exceeded the overall increases in both months.

• Black individuals experienced a 210% increase in deaths in April and a 133% increase in May.
• Hispanic individuals experienced comparable increases—175% in April and 118% in May.

While there is no certainty that excess deaths are directly or indirectly due to Covid-19, the data and analysis of excess deaths are consistent with trends in Covid-19 death data provided by the Connecticut Department of Public Health.

Noting that epidemiologists, researchers, and scientists are uncertain of when the Covid-19 pandemic will end, CT Data Executive Director Michelle Riordan-Nold said, “we can use historical data to inform decisions and policies going forward. Data provides insight into the effect of Covid-19 on our communities, and we can use this information to direct additional resources to our communities, especially those who have been disproportionately impacted by the virus.”

“With the incidence of Covid-19 currently trending slightly higher in Connecticut, and another wave of cases potentially approaching,” Riordan-Nold explained, “communities continue to struggle to recover from the virus economically. Data can help guide policies and will be crucial in making decisions to save lives in our communities.”

All races and ethnicities generally experience an increase in excess deaths as age increases. Regarding the racial disparities reflected in the data, Black individuals make up 10% of Connecticut’s population, but 17% of excess deaths from March to June 2020. From age 30 onward, Black and Hispanic individuals are experiencing excess mortality at a substantially steeper rate than other races and ethnicities. This gradient is magnified as age increases:

• Black individuals aged 80+ experienced a 315% increase (+175) in deaths in April, compared to the Connecticut average of 107% for the same age group.
• Hispanic individuals saw a similarly high increase of 245% (+94).

As excess mortality gradually decreased in May, Black and Hispanic individuals continued to experience excess mortality rates that were two to three times the Connecticut average for older age groups. Understanding the impact of Covid-19 on various races and ethnicities provides an opportunity for policymakers to allocate additional Covid-19 resources and efforts to disproportionately impacted communities, such as Black and Hispanic communities.The data reaffirm information available this spring which pointed to Fairfield County as the part of Connecticut with the highest number of Covid-19 cases. In April, Fairfield County experienced the highest mortality increase of Connecticut’s counties, at 160%. This is well above the overall state average of 100% for the same month. Hartford County and New Haven County also experienced high mortality increases in April 2020, consistent with the state average of 100%. Regions including Windham and New London Counties experienced low to moderate increases in mortality during April and May 2020.

With any data and statistical analysis, it is important to understand whether the sample size is sufficiently large enough for the desired analysis. When looking at overall excess deaths in Connecticut, the sample size is large enough to draw conclusions with high confidence. In regards to specific segments of the population, the sample size is smaller. “Rather than omitting populations with limited data in analysis, it is important to invest additional resources to investigate how Covid-19 is impacting our smaller communities to inform decision makers,” said Jason Cheung, CTData Analyst on this project.

The annual CT Data Conference will be held virtually, Nov. 9 & 10, 2020.