Coronavirus Risks When Attending Events In Connecticut

CONNECTICUT — A new tool released earlier this month could help Connecticut residents gauge the chances of encountering someone who's infected with the coronavirus at any event.

As coronavirus cases increase across the United States, the risk of exposing yourself to the virus increases exponentially with event size, according to Georgia Institute of Technology biologist Joshua Weitz.

The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, developed by Georgia Tech and researchers at the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory, hopes to help Americans better understand these potential risks.

The purpose of the tool is to estimate potential risk based on where you live. It adds another layer to the interactive dashboard that previously estimated only exposure risk for events by state.

"The issue of understanding risks associated with gatherings is even more relevant as many kinds of businesses, including sports and universities, are considering how to reopen safely," Weitz said.

The new tool breaks down potential risk by county. As of Aug. 7, for an event with 100 attendees in Fairfield County, which was the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Connecticut, the estimated risk of someone in attendance being actively infected with the virus is 55 percent. In New London County, the risk for the same-sized crowd drops to 22 percent.

Should you attend an event with 1,000 people that same day, the estimated risk in Fairfield is 99 percent, and 91 percent in New London according to the tool.

At a state level, the risk for residents of Connecticut at the current reported incidence rate is 33.83 percent if attending an event with 100 people. It grows to 98.39 percent if the event has 1,000 attendees. The estimates represent ten times the current reported incidence.

The tool, which is updated daily, incorporates data from a New York Times tally and the Covidtracking.com dashboard, a resource led by journalist Alexis Madrigal of The Atlantic. Both databases record confirmed case reports from state-level departments of public health.

To determine a county’s risk level, the tool taking into account the estimated number of asymptomatic cases where individuals have yet to be tested. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the actual number of people infected with coronavirus antibodies is about 10 times higher than actual confirmed and documented cases.

According to the dashboard’s website, the risk predictions further support the need for ongoing social distancing and protective measures.

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