How’s Winter 2022-23 Shaping Up In CT? See What Forecasts Say

CONNECTICUT — No matter when you mark the start of winter — meteorologically, on Dec. 1, or officially, on Dec. 21 — we can all agree that dread season is now upon us. What forecasters cannot agree upon, is just what kind of weather is in store for the next few months in Connecticut.

In broad strokes, what meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, AccuWeather, The Weather Channel and WeatherBell Analytics seem to agree on, is this:

A La Niña weather pattern, which is back for a third winter, will keep things drier and warmer than normal in the southern U.S., while states in the northern U.S., the Midwest and Ohio Valley, could see stormier-than-normal conditions.

The Farmers’ Almanac and rival publication, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, also release forecasts, though those predictions are generally not as well regarded as those from weather services and companies.

Here’s what the six forecasts say about winter in Connecticut:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Temperatures are leaning between 33 and 40 percent above normal in Connecticut, according to the forecasters at NOAA. Winter snowfalls could go either way, with equal chances afforded higher and lower than normal amounts of precipitation than last year.

AccuWeather: Meteorologists predict between 75 and 125 percent of last year's accumulations. Western Connecticut will be a bust for kids hyped for school closures, however, as AccuWeather calls for accumulations of just 50-74 percent of the 2021-22 season. The chance of a couple of Nor'easters in January and March may keep the season from being a total loss for snowbunnies, according to the long-range report.

The Weather Channel: Winter temperatures in Connecticut will be about what you have come to expect this time of year, according to meteorologists at The Weather Channel. The only great fluctuations from the norm will occur in states to the north and south of us.

At WeatherBell Analytics, forecasters are calling for more of the same-old, same-old, with nothing beyond a -1/+2 degree change compared to the average winter temperatures in the state this winter. Neither should Connecticut's total winter snowfall vary more than a percentage point from the average, according to WeatherBell meteorologists.

The Farmers' Almanac is predicting a miserable January for Connecticut. Winds kick up after New Year's, and snow moves in a week later — as much as a half-foot in some areas. The forecasters call for a second big snowfall the third week of the month, which will also be "bitterly cold (with) many single-digit and subzero temperatures."

That other almanac, The Old Farmer's Almanac, calls for winter temperatures to below normal, while precipitation and snowfall will be above normal in Connecticut. The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-January, late January, and late February.