National Weather Service Releases Winter 2019 Forecast For CT

Depending on which organization you believe in, Connecticut's either looking at a mild winter with little snowfall or conversely it's time to get out the winter gear because we're looking at a bone-chillingly cold winter with lots of snow.

The latest organization to release its long-range winter forecast is the National Weather Service. And if you hate snow and cold, well this is the forecast that you hope is correct for Connecticut. The weather service says from December through February we can expect above-average temperatures.

Why is that?

“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

If you're wondering what El Nino means, according to the NWS, it is an "ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific." During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North, the National Weather Service says.

Most of the country is looking warmer than normal this winter and the NWS stresses that "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures."

As for precipitation potential, Connecticut is in the normal range.

So How Much Snow Are We Getting This Winter?

Several publications including the Farmers' Almanac, will make long-range snowfall predictions but the National Weather Service says that is basically impossible to do.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur," the National Weather Service states.

See related: Farmers' Almanac Releases Winter 2019 Forecast For Connecticut

Old Farmer's Almanac Issues Winter 2019 Forecast For CT

Several Long-Range Winter Forecasts Have Been Released

The National Weather Service's winter prediction comes six weeks after the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmers' Almanac made similar winter projections.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, which released its forecast in late August, predicts a warm, wet winter with less snow than normal in the Northeast. But the Farmer's Almanac, which made its prediction in September, offers a much bleaker outlook.

The high-points from the Farmer's Almanac winter prediction for Connecticut include:

• Colder than normal temperatures.
• More snowfall than normal.
• Bitter cold, winds and snow from mid-February.
• Cold to keep its grip on the region after the official start of spring.

The Old Farmer's Almanac prediction for the Northeast is that we can expect to avoid a deep freeze and, though it's going to rain, most of that precipitation won't be frozen.

It appears the National Weather Service and the Old Farmers' Almanac are on the same page, while only the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a cold and snowy winter.

The Weather Channel in its long-range forecast for November, December and January predicts above average temps for the Northeast in November and December but says that January will be colder than normal.

We'll know by April 1 who was right. There are only 133 days until Spring 2019!

Lead image via Shutterstock; graphs courtesy of the NWS