1,200 More Coronavirus Deaths Projected In CT Through January

CONNECTICUT — A highly cited coronavirus projection model was recently updated to include estimates on how the pandemic could impact Connecticut through the end of January.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is now estimating deaths will hit 5,727 by Feb. 1.

As of Wednesday, there have been 4,537 coronavirus deaths in the state. The authors estimate Connecticut will end the year with 4,943 COVID-19-related deaths, followed by a spike in January.

By the end of January, between 30 and 40 deaths per day are estimated, according to the report.

There is also expected to be a massive spike in coronavirus cases beginning around Thanksgiving and another big jump after Jan. 1, when more than 2,000 people are estimated to be infected with COVID-19 each day, including those not tested.

Overall, the authors are predicting the United States will experience 394,693 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 1.

"At the national level, daily cases remain constant and deaths have declined slightly. Several states in the Midwest have begun the fall/winter surge," the authors conclude. "Given some improvements in components IHME’s modeling, we expect the number of daily deaths to reach 2,250 in mid-January. The fall/winter surge timing in each state will depend on actions by individuals and the speed of reaction to the surge by different governors or other local government officials."

The model, which The Washington Post has called "America's most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.

The widely-cited IHME model is not without its detractors. Researchers writing in The Annals of Internal Medicine criticized the simulation for its grounding "not on transmission dynamics but on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis." The researchers chalked the popularity of the IHME's work up to our collective fear of the unknown, noting the "appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead."

>>>Read their full analysis for CT here.

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