Can suburban Connecticut become an attractive option again?

By Scott Benjamin

Connecticut has a split personality.

Last November 24/7 Wall Street rated it as the fifth best state to live in, partly because of its high median household income and that more than 39 percent of the population has at least a college bachelor's degree, which is about seven points higher than the national average. Connecticut had been ranked second in the nation in that same survey in 2017.

Kiplinger recently reported that Connecticut has the third largest concentration of millionaires in the country. It stated that 9.44 percent of the state's households are occupied by millionaires.

Yet, the Nutmeg State has, according to a 2018 Commission on Fiscal Stability and Economic Competitiveness report, a 29 percent funded pension system for its state employees. In 2017 the Volcker Alliance, named after former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker, gave it a grade of 'D' in managing its legacy costs.

A 2017 study by the American Society of Civil Engineers indicates that Connecticut has the worst roads of any state in the country. Kiplinger recently reported that its real estates taxes are the fourth highest in the nation.

Economist Donald Klepper-Smith of DataCore Partners told Patch.com last year that there is a net loss of 428 people per week in Connecticut.

How can you qualify for the champions tournament on Jeopardy and also be shaking hands with Basement Bertha and Yuchie?

Could the work-at-home revolution that Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom discussed in a recent webinar bring more people to the Nutmeg State as the Manhattan office towers empty?

Southern Connecticut State University Political Science and Urban Affairs Professor Jonathan Wharton said that he is "very intrigued" about Connecticut becoming a more desirable location as a result of the new normal.

"There may be the possibility to pick up more people who want to live in a largely suburban state," he added in a phone interview with Patch.com.

CNN reported on May 22 that "several big businesses plan to let much of their staff work from home permanently even after the pandemic. Mark Zuckerberg said as many as 50 percent of Facebook employees could be working remotely within the next five years."

State Rep. Bob Godfrey (D-110) of Danbury told Patch.com in 2016 that from the 1970s into the 1990s companies wanted to build suburban campuses. General Electric came to Fairfield and UBS went to Stamford.

That trend has changed.

Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg of New Haven wrote in his 2015 book, "America Ascendant" (Thomas Dunne Books, 416 pages), that two-thirds of the college-educated millennials live in the nation's 51 largest cities.

In a December 2016 analysis of why the Massachusetts economy had supplanted Connecticut's economy as the best in New England, The Boston Globe included a sub -headline about the Nutmeg State: "A suburban economy in an urban age."

Remarked Wharton, "I think you might see people move from New York to Connecticut if they can do their work from there. As long as there is a transportation system that can get them to New York City when they need to, there definitely could be more options for people to consider living in Connecticut if they don't have to make the daily commute."

He said that although many millennials have chosen to live in the cities immediately after graduating from college they may as they get older and have families choose to live in suburbia.

The Boston Globe wrote in 2016 that although it is "in a rut. . . Connecticut could reposition itself as the natural choice for young families ready to leave the gritty city and try life in the suburbs - especially if housing prices continue to fall."

Dan Keune, the immediate Past President of CT Realtors, told Patch.com last December that since the Great Recession ended in 2010 home prices in Connecticut have only increased eight-tenths of one percent, compared to a national average of 43 percent. Keune indicated that part of the reason for the meager increase is a lack of inventory.

Regarding the fiscal fallout from the pandemic, Wharton said he doubts the General Assembly will increases taxes if, as expected, the legislators hold a special session this summer. He said that it is an election year for all 187 seats and no candidate wants to jeopardize their bid for a new term with a tax increase.

State Comptroller Kevin Lembo (D-Guilford) announced recently that there as a $619.9 million gap for the fiscal year that ends June 30. The state has nearly $2.5 billion in its rainy day fund, which might be utilized to address that.

However, Wharton said that there may be tax increases during the 2021 regular session before the two-year fiscal cycle ends on June 30.

"I recognize that it will probably be necessary," he said regarding the need to increase taxes after CT Mirror reported in May that there is a projected $7 billion budget deficit for the next three years.

Klepper-Smith has noted that the state lost 288,400 jobs between March 1 and April 30.

Wharton said that, "Concessions [from the unions] will not fully fill all of the gap."

CT Mirror has reported that Gov. Ned Lamont (D-Greenwich) has contacted the leaders of the collective bargaining units for the state employees to come to the bargaining table. The Hartford Courant has reported that there is a $353 million salary increase for the state workers that is due to take effect on July 1.

The state employees have a no-layoff provision through June 30, 2021.

Through the recent years, collective bargaining unit leaders have pointed to a study by a consultant to the state Office of Policy & Management - the governor's budget arm - that reports a projected $24 billion savings from 2017 to 2037 from concessions made by the state workers.

The professor said that over the coming years Lamont and the General Assembly will face questions on whether to replace a large number of state employees who will be eligible to retire.

Former Gov. Dannel Malloy (D-Essex) slashed the state full-time workforce by 13.1 percent over eight years, largely through attrition, according to CT Hearst business columnist Dan Haar.

On a related topic, Wharton said that the "furlough days" that Malloy imposed on state employees during one budget cycle "had an impact on morale."

Wharton said that Lamont's performance during the pandemic began in March has been "a mixed bag."

"He has been effective," the professor exclaimed. "However there have been these secret committees on the reopening. He hasn't been as forthcoming as he should have been."

Wharton said he also is disappointed that the General Assembly has not held "virtual sessions" to conduct legislative business since the pandemic began.

Regarding the November 3 election, he said it is difficult to determine whether the Democrats will maintain their solid majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, partly because of the large bloc of unaffiliated voters.

During the 2016 presidential election, the Republicans drew even with the Democrats in the Senate with 18 seats for each and the Democrats emerged with just a 79-72 edge in the House. However, Patch.com has reported that Gary Rose, the chairman of the Government Department at Sacred Heart University, has said that the Democrats were able exploit negative sentiments toward Republican President Donald Trump during the 2018 midterm elections, particularly among suburban women. Currently the Democrats have a 91-60 advantage in the state House and and 22-14 edge in the state Senate.

Wharton said that he expects the No Tolls organization, which held several rallies last and maintained a presence at the State Capitol against Lamont's proposal to construct gantries across Connecticut, will be active this fall in attempting to elect candidates who support their position.

Lamont announced this last February that he would no longer seek to install tolls and would instead use bond appropriations to pay for highway improvements. He had spent a year trying to garner enough support to get the electronic toll gantries.

Wharton said that he agrees with former state Rep. Dan Carter (R-2) of Bethel, who is seeking to again get elected to his former legislative seat, that Lamont is fighting a two-front war. Carter, who was the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016, told Patch.com that in addition to facing hurdles with the Republicans, the governor also has to contend with the Democrats' Progressive Caucus, which pushed him to increase the minimum wage.

Wharton, a member of the Republican State Central Committee and former chairman of the New Haven GOP town committee, said that as of now former GE and UBS executive Bob Stefanowski of Madison, the 2018 party gubernatorial nominee, and departing state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides of Derby appear to be the top two candidates for the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nomination.

Stefanowski spoke at No Tolls rallies over the last year and his wife, Amy Stefanowski, is now the chairman of the Republican Town Committee in Madison and a member of the Republican State Central Committee. He captured the 2018 primary after not even being nominated three months earlier at the convention.

Klarides has been an outspoken critic of Lamont. CT Hearst columnist Colin McEnroe has stated that she would be a formidable candidate for the GOP nomination. She hasn't formally entered the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, but in announcing this spring her plans not to seek another term in the state House, where she has served since 1999, Klarides said that she didn't think that her political career was over.