Politics & Government
Logan has charisma; will he capture Fifth District congressional seat?
National Republicans again target race against Democratic incumbent Hayes
Fifth District Fun Fact: Since seven-term Democratic incumbent John Monagan of Waterbury lost in the 1972 election, no congressperson has represented Connecticut’s Fifth District for more than three terms. Republican Nancy Johnson of New Britain was in the U.S. House for 12 terms, but during her first 10 terms she represented the now-defunct Sixth District. Reportedly, over the last 52 years the Fifth District has been one of the most competitive in the country.
By Scott Benjamin
The Hail Candidate Well Met not only plays an electrifying version of “Purple Haze.”
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George Logan also is adept at posing for photos, shaking hands, handing out palm cards, assuring a GOP mayor that he has nothing to worry about on election day, autographing pizza boxes and chit-chatting with the folks during Bingo Night at the VFW Post.
Eight years ago he was an obscure first-time state Senate candidate fronting the Electric Lady Band which had played at Toad’s Place in New Haven. Then, two years ago he was in one of the most competitive congressional races in the country. He lost by only about 2,000 votes in the sprawling, diverse Fifth Congressional District to Democrat Jahana Hayes of Wolcott, who garnered a third term.
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“We were outspent three to one and lost by less than one percent of the vote,” said Logan regarding his performance in an election that wasn’t officially determined until the day after the voting in a district that stretches from Newtown to Salisbury. Lisa Hagen of CT Mirror has reported that, including outside groups, about $12 million was spent during the 2022 race in the district.
There will likely be a rematch this year as Logan, a Meriden resident, attempts to become the first Republican to win an election to the U.S. House from Connecticut since 2006.
Michelle Botelho of Danbury also is running again for the GOP nomination. She sought the seat two years ago but did not attend the nominating convention in New Britain.
Logan appears to have shaken more hands than anyone this side of Jay Leno.
Southern Connecticut State University Political Science and Urban Affairs Professor Jonathan Wharton, a former chairman of the New Haven Republican Town Committee, remarked, “He would frequently come to our fund-raisers and support our candidates. He’s always been that kind of person where you can count on him to show up.”
Republican State Central Committee member John Morris of Litchfield said, “When he enters a room people take notice. There is a sense of excitement.”
Wharton added, “He has a very charming way about him. Some of the Democrats are on edge about that. He is able to connect with so many different personalities.”
Fifth District Fun Fact: State Sen. Republican Leader Stephen Harding (R-30) of Brookfield, worked for Republican candidate Andrew Roraback of Goshen in his 2012 campaign.
Five incumbents have lost in the Fifth District since 1972 – Democrats John Monagan (1972) of Waterbury, Bill Ratchford (1984) and Jim Maloney (2002), both of Danbury, and Republicans Gary Franks (1996) of Waterbury and Nancy Johnson of New Britain (2006). Each time the political tide was moving against them.
What are the chances that the political tide will be running against Hayes in 2024?
Democrats typically do better in the presidential election years in Connecticut when there is a larger turnout. No Republican presidential candidate has captured the Fifth District since George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Donald Trump, the likely 2024 GOP nominee, did not carry the district in 2016 or 2020.
Professor Gary Rose of Sacred Heart University said, “With straight ticket voting on the rise, the top of the ticket could very well determine voting behavior on the down ticket. And with Senator Chris Murphy, who once represented the Fifth Congressional District on the ticket his presence too could impact the congressional race. Murphy’s coattails more than Biden’s, could pull Hayes across the finish line. Murphy has become a major player in Connecticut politics.”
Said Logan, “Folks are tired of the status quo. They think things have gotten worse than since the last election. President Biden’s policies have failed.”
Two years ago the Republican National Congressional Committee [NRCC) established a cultural center in New Britain in an effort to help sway the urban vote.
Morris commented, “I think the commitment from the [NRCC] is going to be even bigger this time. They are already active in this race.”
In recent days the NRCC has distributed news releases criticizing Hayes on such topics as her vote against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, President Joe Biden’s “mental state” and a bill on crime penalties.
However, Hayes appears to be more galvanized in her public statements than she was at this point in the last election cycle.
She recently wrote, “The NRCC can’t point to any legislative accomplishments of Logan as a state senator so I’m not surprised they are using all their time and dedicating resources to criticizing me.”
“George is in a much better position” in fund-raising,” said Morris, indicating that Logan, who opened his campaign in October, had raised $420,000 during the last quarter compared to $282,000 for Hayes over that same period. Lisa Hagen of CT Mirror reported that overall in 2023, Hayes collected about $1.2 million in contributions.
Morris said Logan acquired the support of the U.S. House Republican leadership months ago.
“This is something that he didn’t have two years ago that this point in the campaign,” he explained.
Hayes said that those endorsements come from “the most extreme members” of Congress – such as U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Republican House Conference Chairman Elise Stefanik.
Morris said that Logan is not a Republican In Name Only (RINO), as former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays (R-4) was once labeled for his independent positions, but he also is someone who will vote against his party leadership when he thinks it is warranted.
In a phone interview with Patch.com, Logan said he has not endorsed a candidate in the campaign for the Republican nomination for president between Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and is instead “focusing on the Fifth District.”
Fifth District Fun Fact: In 2006, current U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit Judge Sarah Merriam was campaign manager for Democrat Chris Murphy’s first race in the district.
The Fifth District’s demographics have changed since parts of the now-defunct Sixth District and parts of the former Fifth District were merged starting in the 2002 election.
The gauge used to be that to win a Democrat in the district needed a plurality of at least 15,000 votes combined in the five cities – Waterbury, Danbury, New Britain, Meriden and Torrington. That happened in each campaign from 2006 through 2020.
Hayes only amassed about an 8,100-vote edge in those cities in 2022, but still prevailed by capturing some suburbs that recently were solid Republican.
In 2012 when it was an open seat, Democrat Elizabeth Esty of Cheshire, Hayes’ immediate predecessor, won by about 8,000 votes. However, she only captured 10 of the 41 municipalities. Hayes won 21 of the municipalities in 2022.
Columnist Susan Bigelow wrote in CT News Junkie that Logan would have won if he had captured either Cheshire, Farmington or Newtown – which are among the larger suburbs.
Rose stated, “The Republicans do have a ‘suburban problem’ particularly among white suburban and educated women, of which there are many. And they vote in high numbers. In the Fifth District and in other districts across the state women voters due to social and healthcare issues have gravitated to the Democratic Party, which is particularly evident among younger women voters.”
Wharton added, “There is more interest in the Democratic Party in the suburbs. What we’re seeing in the Fifth District is somewhat similar to what has been happening in the Fairfield County in the Fourth District” where Democrat Jim Himes of Greenwich has been capturing suburban towns regularly in the recent years.
Democratic State Central Committee member Audrey Blondin of Goshen remarked, “The pandemic changed the demographics in the district. With the chance to work remotely, you had a transfer of educated and wealthy people, particularly in the Northwest Corner of Litchfield County. The towns that were blue have become dark blue. The district has become bluer in the recent years and I think it is on the verge of becoming a solid Democratic district.”
In 2022 Hayes even carried Roxbury and Bridgewater, rural towns in the southern corridor of Litchfield County which have usually trended Republican in congressional elections.
Morris commented, “The upper part of the district is almost three to one Democrat. It is going to be an uphill battle [for Logan] to overcome” in that part of the Fifth District.
He said, for example, that Salisbury has more Democrats than unaffiliated voters.
Said Logan, “I will take no town for granted.”
Other than trying to reduce Hayes’ plurality in the five cities, where else can Logan gain ground to take the seat?
Morris cited the Farmington Valley. For example, Simsbury, Avon, Farmington and Canton, all gave at least 54 percent of their votes to Hayes in 2022, but could be in Logan’s column this year.
Morris said there has again been discussion of placing a campaign headquarters in Farmington.
Former two-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill Curry, who has lived in Farmington since the 1970s, said, “The Farmington Valley has plenty of Republicans but fewer Trump Republicans. There are better places for him [Logan] to focus his energy. Naugatuck Valley comes to mind.”
Fifth District Fun Fact: In 1984, 30,000 people attended a rally in downtown Waterbury as President Ronald Reagan campaigned for Republican nominee John Rowland, who captured his first of three terms in the district.
Logan is energetic, personable, but in four combined state senate and congressional races in highly-competitive districts, he has never annexed more than 50.92 percent of the vote.
In 2016 he unseated 24-year Democratic incumbent Joe Crisco in the 17th state Senate District, which takes in part of the Naugatuck Valley and the New Haven suburbs.
There was a recount in 2018 before Logan was determined the victor by 85 votes over Jorge Cabrera of Hamden by 85 votes. Then Cabrera prevailed in a 2020 rematch.
State Sen. Eric Berthel (R-32) of Watertown, who chaired the Fifth Congressional District nominating convention in 2022, has said that coming from a swing district Logan was the most bipartisan member of the state Senate during his tenure.
However, Daniela Altimari of the Hartford Courant reported in 2017 that Logan, was warned about some comments during a state Senate session.
The Courant stated that Logan said that he appreciates and respects state workers, including some of those who are part of his family. But he was critical of union leadership and what he said was their too cozy relationship with Democrats in the legislature.
“State employee union leaders have an unhealthy grip on some members of this legislature,” Logan said.
The newspaper reported, “That prompted a stern warning from Senate President Pro- Tempore Martin Looney, who viewed Logan’s comment as out of bounds in a chamber marked by collegiality and decorum. Looney asked [Lt. Gov. Nancy] Wyman, who presides over the chamber, to issue a warning to Logan.”
Regarding the 2022 Fifth District election, Botelho said, “Connecticut usually is not even looked at [by Republican national organizations.] He was on Fox News. It was a race to be flipped. He should have won. [Hayes] did so poorly. [Logan] should have won. He didn’t.”
Hayes was elected with more than 55 percent of the vote in 2018 and 2020. Democrats Joe Courtney of Vernon captured the Second District in 2006 by less than 100 votes and Himes of Greenwich garnered the Fourth District by a narrow margin in 2008, but their pluralities have grown considerably. They never have received the kind of targeting from the national Republican organizations that Hayes has faced the last two cycles.
Rose remarked, “She is not a visible presence in the Fifth District like several of the other Democratic congresspersons in CT nor has she established the reputation as that of a creative and innovative lawmaker. Plus her voting record is not in line with the more moderate and centrist nature of her district.”
Rose added, “Yet she continues to win largely due to the help she receives from forces outside the district and from high profile Democrats who appear on her behalf which routinely helps mobilize the Democratic base. Most voters in the district would be hard pressed to identify Hayes’ legislative accomplishments yet they can’t identify anything that’s negative either, so they stick with her for another term. She is not by any means a “people person” compared to the other four members of the CT delegation nor is there anything exciting about her. But she wins.”
Blondin disagreed with that analysis, saying, “The comments that she is not in tune with her district are complete nonsense. She grew up in Waterbury, yet she has made agriculture and infrastructure, including getting broadband to the rural towns, her priorities.”
Wharton said Hayes, the 2016 national Teacher of the Year, has some impressive credentials and an ability to easily interact with constituents. Robert Marconi of Brookfield, an assistant state attorney general who ran for Congress in the Fifth District in 2004, has said when you speak with Hayes at an event with dozens of people she is focused on you and makes you feel important.
Botelho strongly objects to Hayes’ voting record, but said that some voters, particularly older women, have told her, “Why do you want to run against [Hayes]? She is such a nice lady. She is a teacher.”
Fifth District Fun Fact: Democratic Congressman Bill Ratchford of Danbury, who served from 1979-1985, sent copies of his income tax returns each April to the reporters who covered him regularly and placed them in the Congressional Record.
On the issues, Logan criticized Hayes, saying that she “voted to default on our debt last year. It could have brought our country to its knees. Her vote on default was the most irresponsible vote the incumbent has made.”
Hayes said she voted against the bill to increase the debt limit last May because, “It would have cut meals on wheels and programs like that. “[I said] they will call for more cuts to these programs and they absolutely did [months later].”
“Why are we looking for cuts in programs that affect the most vulnerable people in my district and not even consider how we can address some of the higher tax brackets?” Hayes said in a phone interview with Patch.com. “I’m not going to sacrifice our hardest hit communities. I voted against the administration. I voted against my leadership. But I voted for the people in my district.”
Hayes has voted for appropriations to keep the government running over the last year as the House Republican Freedom Caucus has threatened to shut it down.
“I’m absolutely going to vote to fund the government,” Hayes said. “Nobody wants the government to shut down. We have the contractors, the work force, people who are employed by the government. Everybody is so nervous about what happens if the government shuts down.”
“Our population is increasing,” she added. “You can’t run your house on the same budget that you had 10 years ago if you have more children, if you have different needs, or if you have to make repairs.”
Logan said he agrees with the spending compromise negotiated in January by Speaker Johnson and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on funding the government and averting a federal shutdown, which Hayes also supported.
“I think compromise is more of what we should see in Washington,” Logan said. “Avoiding a government shutdown is the job of the House and the Senate. A government shutdown would impact so many folks in terms of Social Security checks.”
Former Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin, who served under Democratic former President Bill Clinton, wrote recently in The Wall Street Journal that despite reaching an agreement on top-level spending the pending appropriations bills may not be approved, which could lead to a prolonged government shutdown and a possible recession.
Regarding those appropriations bills, Logan said, “I still think there are some negotiations that need to take place.” He added that he hopes Congress will approve the appropriations bills on schedule.
On another topic, Logan said that he supports the expanded child tax credit, which was recently approved with 357 votes, including Hayes’ vote, in the U.S. House.
“The tax credit really helps in terms of giving folks more to spend on,” he explained. “Things like food and debt.”
Wall Street Journal columnist Kimberley Strassel called it “a welfare blowout.”
Regarding Trump’s proposal for a 10 percent trade tariff: “Tariffs may be a small part of it, but is not the overall answer,” Logan commented.
He said that “depending on which economist you talk to” you get a different position on higher tariffs.
“Business regulation needs to be made to make the United States more business-friendly,” said Logan. “I think that would do more than sweeping tariffs to bring jobs back to the United States. I don’t see tariffs as a panacea to solving that.”
Fifth District Fun Fact: Republican Mark Nielsen, then of Danbury, who lost in the 1998 and 2000 races, went on to serve as legal counsel and then chief of staff for Mitt Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts.
On the Middle East, Logan said he supports the Biden Administration’s air strikes in Iraq and Syria.
“I feel that we must remain steadfast in our support for Israel,” Logan commented. “We need to respond, and we are.”
Should the Trump across-the-board tax cut of 2017 be extended before it expires in December 2025?
“I think that is something that needs to be looked at and debated in conjunction with other proposals,” Logan said. “I will look at all options.”
Bob MacGuffie of Fairfield, who is running for the Republican nomination in the neighboring Fourth Congressional District, has complained that the federal debt has grown from $9 trillion to $33 trillion in the last 15 years.
“I think in Washington we need a commission to look at our debt and come up with ways to reduce it,” said Logan. “I think we need to focus more [on reducing debt].”
He remarked that there were “fiscal guardrails” approved in Connecticut in 2017 when he was in the state Senate. Gov. Ned Lamont (D-Greenwich) has been insistent about maintaining those guardrails since they have helped produce five consecutive balanced budgets in the state.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia rates the Fifth District as “Lean Democrat.”
Wharton said he agrees with that appraisal, but it might change based on polling over the coming months.
He added, “I’m always interested in who is donating to the campaigns, and it will probably be this summer before you will see some notable trends on new donors and the repeat donors.”
Resources:
https://patch.com/connecticut/brookfield/logan-insists-fifth-congressional-district-seat-picture.
Phone interview with George Logan, Patch.com, Saturday, February 3, 2024.
Phone interview with Jonathan Wharton, Patch.com, Sunday, January 28, 2024.
E-mail interview with Gary Rose, Wednesday, Patch.com, January 24, 2024.
Phone interview with Audrey Blondin, Patch.com, Friday, January 26, 2024.
E-mail statement from George Logan’s campaign, Monday, February 5, 2024.
Phone interview with Jahana Hayes, Patch.com, Thursday, February 8, 2024.
Interview with Michelle Botelho, Patch.com, Saturday, February 10, 2024.
E-mail interview with Bill Curry, Patch.com, Thursday, February 8, 2024.
E-mail statement from Jahana Hayes, Patch.com, Sunday, February 11, 2024.
https://ctmirror.org/2024/02/01/jahana-hayes-george-logan-fundraising-us-house-ct-5th/
