Sports
Turkey Bowl: Winner Goes To The State Playoffs, Loser Goes Home
There is a remote chance Darien could beat New Canaan and still not qualify, but numerous things would have to happen in other games around the state for that to occur
One thing is certain about Thursday's Turkey Bowl between New Canaan and Darien: Unlike last season, both teams are not headed to the Class L playoffs.
New Canaan (8-1), which is sixth in the Class L rankings, is definitely in with a win and Darien, which is 10th, has a 99 percent chance of making it with a win.
The Blue Wave (8-1) currently have 1,040 points in the rankings. They will pick up 100 for a win on Thursday and an additional 80 for beating an eight-win team.
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Darien also has a guaranteed 30 bonus points, so a victory on Thursday would take the Blue Wave to 1,250 points. With an additional 20 bonus points available (Bassick over Bullard-Havens and Danbury over Ridgefield), Darien could max out at 1,270).
No. 8 North Haven has a max-out total of 1,280, No. 7 Notre Dame of West Haven 1,260 and No. 9 Farmington 1,250 (New Canaan drops behind Darien with a loss).
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According to our calculations, here is the only way Darien can win and NOT make the playoffs (it is complicated):
-- No. 3 Coventry/Windham Tech (vs. 9-0 Ellington.Somers), No. 4 Masuk (vs. 8-1 Newtown) and New London (vs. 7-2 Norwich Free Academy) win their games to finish ahead of the Blue Wave in points
-- Bullard-Havens beats Bassick and Ridgefield beats Danbury so the Blue Wave pick up no additional bonus points and finish at 1,250.
-- Notre Dame-West Haven beats Hamden (1-8) and wins its five bonus games to get to 1,260 points to pass the Blue Wave (Green Knights get to 1,210 with a win over Hamden): Branford (3-6) over East Haven (2-7) North Haven (8-1) over Amity (4-5), Shelton (7-2) over Derby (4-5), Wilbur Cross (1-8) over Hillhouse (6-3) and Cheshire (4-5) over Southington (6-3)
Note: Teams Notre Dame of West Haven needs to win will be favored in three of the five games
-- North Haven beats Amity and wins at least two of its four bonus games to move past Darien (a win over Amity brings North Haven's point total to 1,240: Hamden over Notre Dame-West Haven (see above), Bridgeport Central (3-6) over Harding (2-6), Hillhouse (6-3) over Wilbur Cross (1-8) and Foran (2-7) over Law (0-9).
Note: Teams North Haven needs to win will be favored in all four games.
-- Farmington beats Plainville, then wins in four bonus games to max out at 1,250 (win over Plainville takes the Indians to 1,220 points): E.O. Smith (2-7) over Tolland (5-4) Middletown (6-3) over Xavier (9-0), Platt (4-5) over Maloney (4-5) and RHAM (4-5) vs. Bacon Academy (2-7).
-- Farmington beats Darien in a tiebreaker for the eighth and final playoff spot as each would have 1,250 points. The teams are currently even in tiebreaker points.
Keep in mind, however, for all of this to happen, Middletown needs to beat Xavier, the top-ranked team in the state, and a one-win Wilbur Cross team needs to beat Hillhouse. We don't see either of that happening.
Like we said at the top. the odds of Darien of beating New Canaan and not getting into the playoffs are perhaps one percent - maybe even lower than that.
