Tiebreaker Scenarios For Section One Little League Tournament

Here are the scenarios heading into Monday's final night of pool play in the section one Little League tournament (top two teams advance to Wednesday's final):

Fairfield American 3-0
East Haven 2-1
Shelton 2-1
North Stamford 1-2

Fairfield American (3-0) -- Fairfield American's mantra is simple - win and it's in.

However, if Fairfield American loses to Shelton National and East Haven beats North Stamford, creating a three-way tie at 3-1, it's  conceivable Fairfield American could slip to third because the differentials for runs allowed per inning are close:

East Haven 16/18 == .889
Fairfield American 17/16 == 1.063
Shelton National 18/16 == 1.125
North Stamford 27/16 ==  1.688

For argument's sake, let's say Shelton National beats Fairfield American 4-2 and East Haven beats North Stamford 3-1 (margin of victory actually has no bearing as it comes down to allowing the fewest runs).

The updated run differentials would look like this:

Shelton National 20/22 == 0.909
Fairfield American 21/22 == 0.905
East Haven 17/24 = 0.708

East Haven finishes first and Shelton National grabs the second spot based on its win over Fairfield American.

If Fairfield American loses, it would clinch a spot in the final if North Stamford beats East Haven.

East Haven (2-1) -- East Haven gets in with a win and a Shelton National loss.

If East Haven and Shelton National win, they finish in a three-way tie with Fairfield American at 3-1, and it comes down to the dreaded runs differential tiebreaker.

If East Haven loses, it needs Fairfield American to defeat Shelton National and thereby create a three-way between Shelton National, East Haven and North Stamford at 2-2.

Again, it would come down to the run differential, so if East Haven loses, it would look to give up as few runs as possible.

Shelton National (2-1) -- Even a win is no guarantee, as it could be in a three-way tie with Fairfield American and East Haven at 3-1.

A Shelton National win, coupled with an East Haven loss, does guarantee Shelton National a spot in the final.

If Shelton National loses, it needs North Stamford to beat East Haven in a high-scoring game to forge a three-way tie at 2-2.

North Stamford (1-2) -- A 1-0 win or a 20-0 win makes no difference. North Stamford just needs to win, allow as few runs as possible and hope Fairfield American beats Shelton National in a high-scoring affair.

If North Stamford does pitch a shutout, it would have allowed 27 runs in 22 innings (1.23). To surpass that ratio, Shelton National would have to give up 10 runs in a loss (28/22 = 1.27)

Here's the bottom line: North Stamford needs to make up 10 runs.