Four-Way Mayoral Race Anyone's Guess

In a town that loves its politics, Ledyard’s four-way mayoral race is a rare and wonderful thing that has even the best political prognosticators scratching their heads.

Seeking re-election next Tuesday will be incumbent Mayor Fred B. Allyn Jr., a first-term Republican who is running as a petitioning candidate after losing his party’s endorsement to John Rodolico.

Allyn and Rodolico will be joined on the ballot by Democrat Tony Saccone, chief of the Gales Ferry Volunteer Fire Department, and petitioning candidate Rob Lawrence.

“There’s certainly a lot of interest in this election,” said Democratic Registrar of Voters Hazel Gorman. “I think it’s wonderful to have so many choices, but it’s really made it too close to call.”

“The more candidates you have, the harder it is to get a majority,” agreed Republican Registrar of Voters Nancy Lozier, wife of former Mayor Joe Lozier.

“Sometimes it’s almost easy to predict the outcome, but to me this one is a roll of the dice,” Gorman said.

Like snow in October, no one can remember a four-way race. But there have been three-way races in recent memory, and they could provide some insight into how this one might play out.

In 1983, long-time Republican Mayor J. Alfred Clark was ready to step down. Clark, the town’s first mayor, threw his support behind fellow Republican Glenn Arthur, only to have the party nominate Wes Johnson.

Further complicating matters that year was a third candidate, Vality owner Bill Levin, who ran as an independent.

But the rift in the Republican party, especially after Clark endorsed Democrat Mary McGrattan, played an important part in giving Ledyard its first Democratic mayor.

In terms of numbers, “There’s not much separating the Republicans and Democrats in Ledyard,” Gorman said. “Maybe a couple of hundred votes.”

No one knows that better than former GOP Mayor Susan Mendenhall. In 2003, she ran for mayor against incumbent Wes Johnson – who had found political success by switching parties – only to have a third candidate, Republican Dick Tashea, enter the race as a petitioning candidate.

Sound familiar?

“Oh my heavens!” said Mendenhall. “I was concerned that Tashea, as a fellow Republican, would pull enough votes from me so that I wouldn’t win. I mean, there’s only so many votes to go around.”

Mendenhall did win. But it was a nail-biter, she said.

“Wes was a very strong candidate. He was well known in town and had a lot of support. So I felt I needed every Republican vote I could possibly get,” she said.

Gorman noted that there are more unaffiliated voters in town than either Republicans or Democrats. But both she and Lozier agreed that the town’s independents tend to lean toward Republican candidates.

Which makes it even more intriguing, with two Republican candidates.

“We’re very interested in this election in the Lozier household,” Nancy Lozier said. “My husband is very good friends with both Republicans.”

Mendenhall said party rifts, for some reason, seem more common among Republicans – Joe Lieberman notwithstanding.

“I think the problem that Republicans inherently have, when they have a situation such as we have now, is that they don’t kiss and make up and get on with it, get behind the candidate that their party chooses, whereas the Democrats historically do,” she said. “(Democrats) can fight like cats and dogs, but once the candidate is selected they jump on board the train.”

Voter turnout could play a key role.

“It’s funny, we always get a higher turnout for a national election, even though local elections actually have far more impact on residents,” Gorman said.

“I think a four-way race just kind of throws it up in the air for grabs,” Mendenhall said. “You have four people diluting the votes, and In an off-season election, if you have 3,000 people who vote you’re lucky. So four candidates running can have a huge impact on the final winners.”

Asked to make a prediction, she laughed.

“I’m supporting the nominee of the party,” she said. “I don’t know. I hope he wins, but we’ll see.”