CT November Jobless Rate: 6.5%, Up 0.1%

A news release from the Connecticut Department of Labor, followed by a news release from Gov. Dannel Malloy:

4,600 jobs added in November; unemployment rate ticks up slightly

WETHERSFIELD, December 18, 2014 – On a seasonally adjusted basis, the preliminary nonfarm job estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’s (BLS) monthly establishment survey show Connecticut added 4,600 jobs (0.27%) in November 2014.

The state nonfarm industry has now increased 25,700 positions (1.55%) since November 2013 to a level of 1,687,100 jobs. This is a new employment recovery highpoint. The nonfarm employment gain for October (4,300, 0.26%) was also revised higher by 700 from the initial release.

According to the household survey (Current Population Survey), Connecticut’s unemployment rate increased one-tenth of a percentage point in November 2014 to 6.5%, seasonally adjusted. However, this is lower by a full percentage point from the November 2013 unemployment rate of 7.5%.

The number of unemployed in the state has declined by 16,034 over the year to 122,637. Connecticut’s labor force continues to see strong growth in new entrants / reentrants in November (12,501, 0.7%) and has now increased by 50,893 (2.8%, considered statistically significant) labor force participants over the year.

“Connecticut’s recent string of healthier employment gains looks to be attracting many more jobseekers into the state’s labor market in the lead-up to the holiday season and holiday hiring appears to be above average,” said Andy Condon, Director of the Office of Research. “We are also starting to observe some much improved estimates of private sector wage growth that may be encouraging labor force participation as well.”

Nonfarm Jobs (business establishment survey)

Preliminary nonfarm employment estimates indicate 4,600 (0.27%) jobs were added to Connecticut payrolls in November 2014 (seasonally adjusted). Five of the ten major industry supersectors added jobs last month. This is the third monthly nonfarm employment gain in a row since an August decline (-1,200) and is the ninth monthly job gain in 2014 (tenth of last 12 months).

The yearly nonfarm job growth pace in the state now is calculated at 25,700 (1.55%) since November 2013. The state has added 23,600 jobs (about 2,145 per month) through the first eleven months of the year which is a solid improvement over the 2013 pace of 16,300 (about 1,482 per month) through November.

Connecticut’s private sector added 4,700 positions (0.3%) in November, which is the tenth consecutive monthly private employment gain in 2014 following the large weather-related job loss last January 2014 (-10,900). Since November 2013, Connecticut has added 25,000 private sector jobs (1.8%, a 2,273 monthly pace).

The five major industry supersectors that gained jobs (establishment survey) in November were led by the professional, scientific, and technical services (2,800, 1.3%). Especially strong job growth arose from the administrative and support services component (2,000, 2.3%) where temporary employment services are located. The trade, transportation, and utilities (TTU) supersector (2,000, 0.6%) also showed robust job gains in November. The retail trade (2,200, 1.2%) segment provided the bulk of the gains and has been strong for the last four months. Holiday hiring appears to be above average at this point. The financial activities supersector (700, 0.5%) grew in November as the finance and insurance (600, 0.5%) component and the real estate (100, 0.5%) sector both expanded. Smaller gains of just 100 jobs each were recorded from the other services (100, 0.2%) and leisure and hospitality (100, 0.1%) supersectors. TTU remains the best growing supersector over the year (8,200, 2.7%) driven by retail trade (5,600, 3.0%).

Employment losses in the five declining industry supersectors in November were fairly small - fewer than 500 - with the information supersector (-400, -1.3%) posting the largest job decline. The combined construction and mining (-300, -0.5%) supersector was also lower. The manufacturing supersector (-200, -0.1%) was just slightly down but still remains up over the year (700, 0.4%). The government (-100, -0.04%) supersector and the education and health services supersector (-100, -0.03%) both posted small job declines.

Recession recovery: Connecticut has now recovered 93,200 positions, or 78.3% of the 119,100 seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs that were lost in the state during the March 2008 - February 2010 employment recession. Connecticut’s jobs recovery is now 57 months old and is averaging approximately 1,635 jobs per month overall since February 2010. The private sector has recovered employment at a faster clip and has now recovered 103,000 (92.0%) of the 112,000 private sector jobs that were lost during the same recessionary downturn (1,807 per month pace).

At 1,687,100 overall nonfarm jobs in November 2014, the state needs to reach the 1,713,000 level to start a true nonfarm employment expansion. This will require an additional 25,900 jobs. A total of just 9,000 additional private sector positions are needed to have a fully recovered private sector. The government supersector has continued to lose net jobs (-9,800) throughout the overall nonfarm employment recovery.

Labor Market Areas (LMAs): The November 2014 preliminary nonfarm job numbers reveal that five of the six major Connecticut Labor Market Areas (Bureau of Labor Statistics-recognized LMAs) had job increases while only the New Haven LMA (-100, 0.04%) exhibited a very small decline. The largest labor market in the state, the Hartford LMA (2,600, 0.5%) posted the largest regional job gain while the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk LMA (2,300, 0.5%) also put up strong November job growth.

The Waterbury LMA (500, 0.8%) had the best showing in percentage terms for the month while the Norwich-New London LMA (300, 0.2%) has experienced four monthly job gains in a row to turn positive over the year (300, 0.2%). The Danbury LMA (200, 0.3%) also was positive last month. This now puts all Connecticut BLS-recognized LMAs in the green over the year. Note: The major Connecticut LMAs are estimated and seasonally adjusted independently from the statewide numbers by the BLS and cover about 90% of the nonfarm employment in the state, so they will not fully sum to the statewide total.

Hours and Earnings: The private sector workweek, not seasonally adjusted, averaged 34.2 hours in November 2014, and is higher by six-tenths of an hour (1.8%) from the year-ago estimate of 33.6 hours. Average hourly earnings at $28.81, not seasonally adjusted, were up $1.21, or 4.4%, from last November. The resulting average private sector weekly pay was calculated at $985.30, up $57.94, or 6.2% over the year. All employee private sector wage estimates have been outpacing inflation the last two months and may be another sign of an improved labor market.

The year-to-year change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, U.S. City Average, not seasonally adjusted) in November 2014 was 1.3%. Information for the manufacturing production workweek and earnings can be found in the table section of this release under the “Hours and Earnings” data category. (Current all-employee private sector hours and earnings estimates can be volatile due to sample response.)

Labor Force Data (residential household survey)

Connecticut’s unemployment rate was calculated at 6.5% for November 2014 (seasonally adjusted). This is one tenth of a percentage point higher than October 2014 rate, but down a full percentage point from the November 2013 unemployment rate of 7.5%.

Unemployment: Based on the household survey, the number of unemployed, seasonally adjusted, posted an increase of 1,106 (0.9%) over the month to 122,637 in November 2014. On the other hand, the number of unemployed residents has decreased by 16,034 (-11.6%) since November 2013. Connecticut’s slight uptick in the unemployment rate last month came about with a very large labor force increase (12,501, 0.7%) which is a tangible indication more residents are out looking for work. Year-to-year labor force growth now measures 50,893 (2.8%). Connecticut’s civilian labor force has increased 9 of 11 months in 2014 after bottoming out in this recovery in December 2013 at 1,845,784. The United States unemployment rate was 5.8% in November, unchanged from the October 2014 rate of 5.8%, but lower by one and one-two tenths of a percentage point from the November 2013 rate of 7.0%.

As always, the sample size underlying labor force and unemployment data is very small and caution is advised in interpreting these preliminary estimated trends.

The November 2014 average weekly initial unemployment claims for first-time Connecticut filers (seasonally adjusted) increased over the month by 484 claims (11.8%) to 4,585, but are lower by 201 claims (-4.2%) from November 2013 (4,786).

The nonfarm employment estimate, derived from a survey of businesses, is a measure of jobs in the state; the unemployment rate, based on a household survey, is a measure of the work status of people who live in Connecticut. Overall, as the national and state economies recover, volatility in monthly numbers can be expected. Additionally, changes in methodology that culminated in March 2011 with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics assuming complete responsibility for estimating all states’ monthly nonfarm job counts, have contributed to the month-to-month variability in the numbers. Jobs estimates are best understood in the context of their movement over several months rather than observed changes in a single month’s estimate.

Next Connecticut Labor Situation release: Monday, January 26, 2015 (December 2014 data)

Gov. Malloy’s Statement on the Latest Unemployment Figures

Governor Dannel P. Malloy today released the following statement in response to the release of the Connecticut Department of Labor’s monthly “Labor Situation” report for November 2014. The monthly report shows:

• Connecticut saw a net increase of 4,700 private sector jobs in November 2014
• Since January 2011, the total number of private sector jobs in the state has increased by 76,000
• The state’s private sector has recovered 92% of the jobs that were lost during the Great Recession
• Employee hours and earnings have increased over the last twelve months, with a 1.8% increase in the average weekly hours worked and an increase of nearly $60 in average weekly earnings
• The labor force participation rate, currently at 1,898,752, has increased over the year by 2.8%.

“This report is another positive sign that we are making progress in our effort to create good paying jobs with good benefits for residents,” said Governor Malloy.

“Labor force participation is up. We are seeing growth in nearly every sector of the economy. And the private sector in particular has almost completely recovered the jobs lost during the recession. While these are positive signs, it is critical that we work to make the changes that lead to even greater positive growth.

“I won’t be satisfied until everyone who wants a job has one. And during the upcoming session of the state legislature, I am hopeful that we can do more to work together and reinvent Connecticut in order to create jobs for the 21st Century economy.”