FL Housing Market Shifts As Buyers Gain An Advantage Not Seen In Years

The real estate brokerage Redfin said a record 41 of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas have shifted to buyer's markets, with Miami, Nashville and Houston leading the trend. Seller's markets remain in only five places, including San Francisco and select metros in the Northeast.

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Redfin said September marked the fourth consecutive month of record-breaking figures, with the seller-to-buyer margin expanding sharply from 56.9 percent in August. This shift comes as active homebuyer numbers dropped to levels unseen since tracking started in 2013, while seller listings reached a peak last recorded in 2020.

Nationwide, homebuyers fell 2.4 percent month over month to an estimated 928,892, while home sellers rose 1.2 percent to 1,510,784.

Florida emerged as one of the nation's strongest buyer's markets, with sellers significantly outnumbering buyers in all six Florida metropolitan areas included in Redfin's analysis.

• In Miami, which ranked as the strongest buyer's market in the country, sellers outnumbered buyers by 158.9 percent in September, with 18,909 sellers and 7,304 buyers.
• In Orlando, sellers outnumbered buyers by 123 percent, with 20,083 sellers and 9,005 buyers.
• Fort Lauderdale also remained firmly in buyer's-market territory, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 117.8 percent. The metro area had 17,800 sellers and 8,172 buyers.
• In Tampa, sellers outnumbered buyers by 103.7 percent, with 26,749 sellers and 13,134 buyers.
• Jacksonville had 80.2 percent more sellers than buyers, with 12,142 sellers compared with 6,736 buyers.
• West Palm Beach also favored buyers, with 14,850 sellers and 8,852 buyers, representing a 67.8 percent surplus of sellers.

The imbalance grew especially sharply in Miami, where the seller surplus increased by 24.4 percentage points from August to September, rising from 134.5 percent to 158.9 percent.

Tampa experienced the second-largest monthly increase nationwide, with its seller surplus climbing 21.5 percentage points, from 82.2 percent in August to 103.7 percent in September.

Buyer's Market For Some

Redfin said high housing costs and broader economic uncertainty have sidelined many prospective buyers in recent years, leaving sellers competing for a shrinking pool of buyers. That gives buyers more negotiating power, but only those who can afford to purchase a home in the first place.

"This is a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength," Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said in a news release. "Buyers have tremendous negotiating power in most of the country because so many other would-be buyers have been priced out of the market, or scared off by economic uncertainty."

For house hunters with the budget and job security, today's market offers a rare opportunity to negotiate, be selective or walk away, Khan said.

"The irony is that in terms of supply, these are some of the best conditions for buyers in many years–but they have arrived at a time when costs are so high that fewer people can afford to take advantage of them."

Geographic Balance Of Power

The shift toward buyers is especially pronounced in the Sun Belt, led by Florida, Texas and Tennessee, where sellers greatly outnumber buyers. All 13 of the nation's strongest buyer's markets are in the Sun Belt, including four each in Florida and Texas.

Redfin attributed part of Florida's growing housing inventory to robust home construction, which has continued adding properties to the market even as demand has cooled.

The brokerage also pointed to rising homeowners association fees and insurance costs as additional financial pressures facing Florida homebuyers.

By contrast, sellers still have the advantage in just five major markets, concentrated in the New York City suburbs, Milwaukee and San Francisco. Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, are among the markets moving closer to favoring buyers.

Redfin estimated the number of buyers using its own data on how long it typically takes someone to buy a home after their first showing, along with real estate listing and pending sales data.

It counted homes listed for sale to estimate the number of sellers. The figures are adjusted for seasonal fluctuations and may be revised.