Could Orlando’s Tragedies Hurt Florida Tourism?

As Orlando and the rest of the nation continue to reel in the face of three back-to-back tragedies that claimed 53 lives in the span of a few short days, some are wondering if visitors might think twice about planning Florida vacations.

The string of tragedies that have made national and international news began on Friday, June 10, when a St. Petersburg man shot and killed Christina Grimmie at an Orlando concert. The Orlando Police Department identified Kevin James Loibl, 27, as the man who gunned down the 22-year-old singer, who rose to fame during the third season of NBC’s “The Voice.”

Loibl, police said, traveled to Orlando specifically to kill Grimmie.

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As police were continuing the Grimmie investigation over the weekend, the unthinkable happened. A lone gunman, Omar Mateen, 29, walked into the Pulse Orlando Night Club and Ultra Bar and began firing at patrons early Sunday morning. Before he was shot and killed by police, Mateen killed 49 others and left 53 people wounded.

The attack, classified as an act of terrorism by federal investigators, was the largest mass shooting in U.S. history. More than 20 people remained hospitalized Thursday, six of them in critical condition.

The latest hit came Tuesday when a 2-year-old boy visiting the area with his family was dragged away by an alligator at Walt Disney World’s Grand Floridian Resort. The boy, Lane Graves, was found dead Wednesday afternoon by divers from the Orange County Sheriff’s Office.

All of that could add up to a dip in tourism for Florida, especially the Orlando area, industry analysts say.

Abraham Pizam, dean of University of Central Florida's Rosen College of Hospitality Management, told Florida Today a short-term negative impact on tourism is likely. The dip is most likely to come from international tourists rather than travelers who might more readily sympathize with Orlando’s plight, he said.

While a dip in tourism is likely, UCF economist Sean Snaith doesn’t think it will be significant.

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“I don’t think, as tragic as horrific as it was, it’s going to have an impact at the level of 9/11, but it certainly is not the kind of tragedy one (wants) associated with the region,” Snaith said, according to the Orlando Business Journal.

Recent history has shown that terrorism attacks in particular have only short-term impacts on tourism. A World Travel and Tourism Council study found it only takes about 13 months for tourism to rebound following a terrorist attack, according to Fox News. It takes about 21 months for a rebound after a disease outbreak and 24 months following an environmental disaster.

“The tourism industry is a very resilient industry, and people have fairly short memories,” Yeganeh Morakabati, a professor at the U.K.’s Bournemouth University, told Fox. “And so long as the attacks are one-off, the impact tends to be small.”

Prior to this week’s events, Florida had been experiencing a banner year in tourism. The state reported in May that it welcomed a record-breaking 29.8 million tourists in the first quarter of 2016.

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