Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

As major Hurricane Irma followed projected path anticipated to have catastrophic impacts on the Tampa Bay area in the next few days, a grave warning from hurricane experts originally shared in 2015 served as a reminder of the region's unique vulnerabilities.

What follows are excerpts of a Patch story written in June 2015 that chronicles hurricane experts' fears that a major storm could leave the coastal areas of Tampa Bay reeling after impact:

While it’s been nearly 100 years since the last major hurricane came onshore directly in the Tampa Bay area, experts warn that complacency may prove costly in lives and property.

“We’ve been kind of lucky,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel was quoted by the Daily Mail as saying. “In the Tampa region, an Andrew-sized storm could cause more than $200 billion in damage, according to a local government study in 2010.”

Meteorologists say areas like Tampa, Daytona Beach and Houston should get hit with major storms every 20 to 40 years or so, the Daily Mail noted. Even so, the last major storm to strike Tampa hit way back in 1921. While Hurricane Frances did make herself known when she passed through in 2004, the storm was diminished in strength by the time it hit the Bay, Sperling’s Best Places noted.

Even so, that website still lists the Tampa Bay area as number four on its list of worst places for hurricanes.

While Tampa’s bullet dodging has largely kept the region safe from major storms in the memories of most people alive today, it’s that foggy memory that has some experts concerned.

“It’s just the law of statistics,” Emanuel was quoted by U.S. News & World Report as saying. “Luck will run out. It’s a question of when.”
Experts are particularly worried about the potential casualties a major storm in the Bay area would create.

“My worry is that we’ll have hundreds or even thousands dead in the next major hurricane that hits the Tampa Bay area,” U.S. News quoted Christopher Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in Miami is saying.

Hurricane Irma approached Cuba Saturday morning as a powerful Category 5 storm. By 2 p.m. Sept. 9, the National Hurricane Center said Irma's clash with the island nation lad left the storm weakened. Even so, Irma very much remained a major hurricane, classified as a Category 3 storm. Forecasters expect Irma to retain major hurricane status when she crashes into Florida on Sunday and continues on a projected path that is expected to have potentially catastrophic impacts on Florida's west coast and the Tampa Bay area.

Irma, the behemoth that tore through the Caribbean, leaving at least 20 people dead in its wake, was packing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Irma was located about 145 southeast of Key West, moving west at 9 mph.