Tampa Bay Planning Council Estimates 218,000 Lost Jobs

PINELLAS PARK, FL — A new study by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Councilestimates that the economic impacts from the coronavirus will be felt more acutely in the Tampa Bay area and Florida than in many other parts of the country.

While Florida has fewer per capita coronavirus cases than many other states, it’s one of the most vulnerable states to the coronavirus' far-reaching economic impacts due to the state economy’s heavy reliance on the tourism and hospitality industries, as well as the state’s fiscal dependence on sales tax, according to the council.

Assuming there is a 10 percent contraction in the U.S. economy this year and a continued increased mortality rate in Florida due to the coronavirus, the regional planning council’s COVID-19 Economic Impact Analysis estimates the following impacts in the Tampa Bay area for 2020:

• Approximately 218,000 Tampa Bay area jobs would be lost, 10.6 percent of the area’s employment base of two million, due in large part to lower activity at hotels, restaurants and retailers.
• There would be an estimated 11.7 percent reduction in Tampa Bay area gross domestic product, equivalent to a loss of $20.9 billion from the area’s previously estimated 2020 GDP of $179 billion.
• The Tampa Bay area would experience a loss of personal income of $19.9 billion, a 10.6 percent reduction from the previously estimated 2020 total of $187 billion.

The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council report cites three key drivers – economic losses related to coronavirus deaths, a statewide drop in consumer spending and a national recession – that will negatively impact Florida’s economy during and after the pandemic.

According to the council, deaths from the coronavirus hurt the economy because each individual who dies from coronavirus no longer spends money or generates demand for investment in production or supply chains of goods. Florida’s average age, 44, is higher than the national average of 42, and the coronavirus has a higher mortality rate at age 65 and older. Increased mortality could, in turn, decrease consumer spending in Florida significantly, and the effects could be felt over the course of a decade.

Also, statewide drops in consumer spending most directly impact the tourism and hospitality sectors, which make up a large proportion of the Tampa Bay area’s economy. In addition, spending in the U.S. by foreign visitors, often involving hotels, travel, attractions and restaurants, is expected to drop by at least by 20 percent.

The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council created the COVID-19 Economic Impact Analysis to assist residents and leaders in assessing the risks that the coronavirus poses to the regional economy. TBRPC analyzed data from a number of sources, including the World Health Organization, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the Brookings Institute, using a highly regarded macroeconomic model, REMI PI+.

As more data becomes available, the council will update this preliminary analysis. The council expects to release a complete report in June 2020.

“The Regional Planning Council is pleased to present this report to Tampa Bay area leaders as a resource for recovery planning,” said Sean Sullivan, executive director of the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council. “We know that smart decisions can only be made based on quality information, and we see our role as being one of the providers for such information.”

The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council brings together governments to coordinate planning for the community’s future and provide an opportunity for sharing solutions among the local government jurisdictions in the Tampa Bay region. TBRPC works with six counties and 21 municipalities to make long-range plans related to the future of the Tampa Bay region.