Confidence Plummets in Sept-Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer confidence in U.S. economy plummeted in September 2024, per the Conference board. The report that follows is per The Center Square which self-describes as “Controversial topics without the controversy.” They also say that “Many topics…have become hot-button issues. Parents, teachers, and taxpayers need fact-based reporting…with no political spin. The Center Square is equipping voters with these facts before they head to the polls this year.” The Center Square allows this contributing writer for the Patch to reproduce their content so long as proper credits are given. Their article below is originally published at this link here.

Part I

Consumer confidence in U.S. economy plummets in latest data

By Casey Harper | The Center Square

(The Center Square) – Newly released data shows that Americans’ confidence in the economy dropped sharply in September, the biggest one-month change since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Conference Board’ Consumer Confidence Index, a marker of how confident Americans in the economy, plummeted in September. The figure fell from 105.6 in August to 98.7 in September, the most significant drop since August of 2021.

“Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.”

The federal government announced earlier this year that it significantly overestimated its previous data on how many jobs the U.S. economy created last year, meaning the labor market was far weaker last year than the federal data previously showed.

In fact, the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than federal economists previously said, about a 30% reduction, the most significant jobs data revision in 15 years.

“Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income,” Peterson added.

Inflation has slowed since its breakneck pace earlier in the Biden administration, prompting the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce its first interest rate cut since 2020. However, prices remain elevated, having risen more than 20% since President Joe Biden took office.

“This morning's Conference Board Consumer Confidence report was surprisingly downbeat, dragged down by a continued deterioration of consumers' assessment of the present labor market situation,” Parker Ross, Global Chief Economist at Arch Capital Group, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“The metric from this report that I track most closely - the labor market differential (i.e. the net share reporting jobs plentiful less hard to get) - recorded its worst monthly decline in six months and extended a trend that suggests the unemployment rate will continue to rise,” he added.

Wealthier Americans remained more confident, but poorer Americans were less confident.

Notably, other consumer sentiment data has painted a rosier picture recently.

“The drop in confidence was steepest for consumers aged 35 to 54. As a result, on a six-month moving average basis, the 35–54 age group has become the least confident while consumers under 35 remain the most confident,” Peterson said. “Confidence declined in September across most income groups, with consumers earning less than $50K experiencing the largest decrease. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning over $100K remained the most confident.” ##

Casey Harper | D.C. Bureau Reporter

Part II - Additional Information with More Insights and Analysis for the Patch

In our recent series of periodic reports on the housing market, Patch readers have seen evidence that the housing market is performing at historically poor levels compared to pre-Biden-Harris years.

Fannie Mae-Existing Home Sales Near 30-Year Low Despite Lower Rates

NAR-Existing Home Avg $416700 Aug-2024 Interest Rates Slide-Sales Dip

Newcomers and returning readers take note. What I'm providing in these articles are the statements issued by Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors, or in the article linked below, the remarks of Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) member Frank Rolfe, who ripped that trade group for their years of failures. Note too that quoting Rolfe isn't to be misunderstood as agreeing with his business practices. That said, even a stopped classic clock is correct twice daily.

Frank Rolfe-Special Interests ‘Don’t Want to Solve Affordable Housing'

Someone doesn't even have to be interested in a manufactured home to benefit from more affordable manufactured homes being sold as a way of keeping skyrocketing housing costs under control. Who said? The National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.

Roughly two years after that remark, Yun's associate at the NAR, Scholastica "Gay" Cororaton published a report on the importance of modern manufactured housing's potential to help the affordable housing crisis. Oddly, as the graphic below reflects, MHI is not known to have posted this useful research on their own website.

The same is true of Dr. Lisa Tyler, Ph.D. Tyler is pro-manufactured housing and is reportedly the first person in years to earn her doctorate by doing manufactured home specific research. Yet, MHI didn't promote that research, her or Cororaton? Years of third-party research into manufactured homes is found at this link here. Most, perhaps all of that research, is not found on the MHI website. So, doesn't that suggest that however notorious Frank Rolfe may be, that he has raised a valid point in criticizing MHI?

So, you can see why a challenge has been issued for MHI to publicly discuss or debate their performance. To learn more, see the report linked below and the linked reports that follow. Because the answer to declining hope in obtaining the American Dream is to provide proven, common-sense solutions.

Manufactured Housing Institute & Next Great Affordable Housing Debate?

In my expert view, people should have the right to select the kind of home that they desire and can afford. We need more of all kinds of housing, including more of what the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) calls modern, mainstream manufactured homes. Give people hope by making affordable living a reality instead of a campaign slogan that never, ever seems to come to pass. ##

Knight-‘Govt Exists to Promote and Protect Ordinary Happiness in Life’

Deception & Misdirection-3 Tricks-Paltering, Posturing and Projecting

Lessons of Bernie Madoff-Enron-WorldCom-2008 Housing-Financial Crisis

HUD Admits Decades of Delay-Finally OK Multi-Family Manufactured Homes

Realtor-What Is a Manufactured Home? The Next Step Beyond Mobile Homes

‘Mobile Home Values Rising Faster Than Single-Family’ House-Wow Fact$

Orlando RE Agent Smith-Younger Adults Will Need $8500 Monthly for Rent

Blankley-Goodbye American Dream? Only 10% Polled Can Buy a House; But

Waiting for Fed Rate Cut Before Buying a Home? Experts Say Think Twice

TARK-‘I’m a Teen and Know the Solution to Affordable Housing Crisis’

TARK-Drill Down on Tyranny vs. Faith; Freedom and Upcoming Election

New-Certified “Half Price Homes” - Affordable Housing Solution Redux

Solution: “Would-Be Homebuyers Need 80% More Income Than 4 Years Ago”

L. A. “Tony” Kovach and his family live in a manufactured home on private property in Winter Haven, FL. He is the co-founder of ManufacturedHomeLivingNews.com and
ManufacturedHomeProNews.com, trade publications serving segments of the manufactured home industry. Having worked in several segments of the manufactured home industry for over 3 decades, Kovach is a widely acknowledged and often praised expert on manufactured housing.