Honesty Issue Hurts Hillary Clinton's Swing State Lead Over Donald Trump: Pollsters

Hillary Clinton may not face criminal charges after the FBI concluded its investigation into her use of a private email sever during her tenure as secretary of state, but that doesn’t mean there aren't repercussions.

In its latest 2016 Presidential Swing State Poll, Quinnipiac University found the presumptive Democratic nominee had lost her lead against Republican challenger Donald Trump in two of three critical swing states. Trump led Clinton 42 to 39 percent in Florida as of July 13. That’s a drop from Clinton’s 47-to-39 percent lead logged on June 21.

In Ohio, Clinton and Trump tied at 41 percent. The numbers are similar to the June 21 poll that had them tied at 40 percent.

Pennsylvania is another state where Clinton’s lead has fallen over the past few weeks. As of July 13, Quinnipiac said Trump led the state with 43 percent versus Clinton’s 41. That compares to Clinton’s June 21 lead of 42 percent to Trump’s 41 percent.

When Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were added into the poll mix, Trump still led Florida and Pennsylvania. He also came out ahead of Clinton 37 percent to 36 percent in Ohio, as well. Johnson and Stein only siphoned single-digit percentages of the vote in the three swing states.

Quinnipiac University polls the three swing states heavily leading up to presidential elections, using history as its guide for doing so. No presidential candidate since 1960 has pulled off a victory without winning at least two of the three states, Quinnipiac noted in its poll release.

As Trump prepares to head to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland on July 18, he does so “on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. That “small roll” in Florida is somewhat bigger, Brown noted. In the Sunshine State, “he has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead.”

"While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of emails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty,” Brown explained.

Voters view Clinton as more intelligent and better prepared to be president, Brown said. Even so, they see Trump as having “higher moral standards” and say he is more honest and trustworthy.

In Florida specifically, voters aren’t particularly keen on either candidate. Clinton’s favorability ratings were 35 percent positive and 59 percent negative, while Trump’s came in at 38-54 percent.

While Trump did lead the Sunshine State, Brown offered a cautionary note for the Republican presidential candidate in regard to keeping his lead:

"In Florida, Donald Trump is getting only 21 percent of the non-white vote,” Brown said. “Although he is winning among white voters, who are mainly Republican, victory in Florida will be a very difficult lift for him if he can't do better among non-white voters.”

Florida voters, the poll also showed, are sick of business as usual in Washington, D.C. Sunshine State voters agreed:

• 71 – 25 percent that old ways don’t work and radical change is needed
• 55 – 39 percent that foreign trade agreements have hurt them personally
• 80 – 19 percent that public officials don’t care what average people think

The July 13 poll reflects the results of phone surveys conducted between June 30 and July 11. Quinnipiac interviewed 1,015 Florida voters, 955 Ohio voters and 982 Pennsylvania voters to arrive at its results.

To read the full poll report, visit Quinnipiac University online.

[Photo credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr Commons]