Trough of Low Pressure Headed Toward Florida

MIAMI, FL— With a full month to go before the official start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, weather officials in Miami are keeping an eye on a trough of low pressure that appears headed toward Florida.

"This is not something to get concerned about. This is just mainly going to be a rainmaker for us," meteorologist Sean Miller of the National Weather Service in Miami told Patch on Wednesday.

While the chances of the system earning a name are slim, Miller said the eventual first named storm of the season will be called Andrea.

"We actually have had named systems in May before. It’s not unusual to have a little bit of activity early on," said Miller. "Generally, we need a little time to get the water to warm up a little bit before we tend to get more significant things."

Weather researchers at Colorado State University recently predicted a slightly below-average 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The university's Tropical Meteorology Project team said the 2019 season is expected to be about 75 percent of an average season with 13 named storms.

The researchers predicted two major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour. Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 4, July 2 and Aug. 6.

The Farmers’ Almanac is calling for May to start off with dry and hot weather throughout the Southeast. The almanac, not to be confused with the old Farmer’s Almanac, recently released its summer 2019 outlook for the United States. It forecasted a muggy and wet summer for areas east of the Mississippi River, including “above-normal” precipitation.

The Southeast is expected to bear the brunt of the hurricane season, with the almanac predicting a tropical disturbance in mid- to late-May. A tropical storm could then threaten the region in mid-June, mid-September and mid-October.

Both the new and old almanacs purport to have accuracy rates of about 80 percent and the sun factors into both predictions. The new uses a formula that takes into consideration things like sunspot activity, the moon’s tidal action and the position of other planets. The old uses sunspot activity as well, in addition to climatology and meteorology.

Meteorologist Miller of the National Weather Service said that the trough of low pressure could produce flooding in some areas of South Florida and less than favorable boating conditions along with rip currents.

He said weather officials will be monitoring the system for at least the next five days.

"That's the period that the Hurricane Center has their eye on it," he explained on Wednesday. "Over the next two days there’s a near zero chance of development. That’s when it’s going to make its closest to approach here to Florida."

He said the system will likely have little effect impact beyond South Florida.

"Odds are that it appears it’s going to be moving back off shore once it moves away from us," Miller said.

The system was reported over the northwest Bahamas and is expected to move over the western Atlantic later this week possibly producing locally heavy rains over portions of the Bahamas and Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Patch national staffer Dan Hampton contributed to this report.