2 Tropical Storms In Atlantic: Is There A Threat To Florida?

FLORIDA — As cleanup and the search for missing continues in the wake of Hurricane Ian, National Hurricane Center meteorologists are closely watching two new storms in the Atlantic Ocean.

Experts are monitoring the formation of Tropical Depression 12 in the Atlantic Ocean along with a tropical disturbance in the southeast Caribbean Sea that has a 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression 12 was about 635 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It's moving west-northwest at about 13 mph.

Forecasters expect the depression to continue this movement for the next day or so and then weaken.

Additionally, a broad, elongated area of low pressure has developed in the Caribbean, just off the coast of Venezuela, that is producing thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands and northern South America. The system, which is moving west at about 15 mph, is likely to become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it enters the south-central Caribbean Sea, said the hurricane center.

Additional strengthening is anticipated while the system moves west toward Central America late Friday through Sunday. Forecasters said it has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next five days.

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If both tropical disturbances continue to develop, they'd be named "Julia" and "Karl."

"Proximity to the coast of South America as well as strong wind shear is likely to limit the intensity and perhaps prevent the organization of the system as it moves westward over the southern Caribbean into Friday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "For the system to organize through Friday, a cluster of intense thunderstorms would have to form offshore and persist long enough to develop a low pressure area and circulation."

AccuWeather forecasters maintain that the system is unlikely to make a northward turn toward the United States this weekend, but cruise ship operators and vacationers in the path of the storm through the southern Caribbean should be prepared for altered plans or adverse weather conditions.

The National Hurricane Center said an Air Force hurricane hunter plane investigated the storm Wednesday was underway Wednesday to investigate the storm and said a belt of high pressure and strong wind shear will hold across the northern islands of the Caribbean through this week and into this weekend.

When wind shear is strong, it can inhibit tropical development, and should prevent a northward track to the northern Caribbean and the U.S.

Nevertheless, the hurricane center said Central America should closely monitor the storm because there is the potential it could strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane this weekend and into early next week.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said in their annual prediction for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and continues through Nov. 30, that the season should be active.

According to this year's forecast, the ongoing La Niña, in addition to above-average ocean temperatures, means there's a 65 percent chance the 2022 hurricane season will be above normal.

For the 2022 season, forecasters are predicting 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, anywhere from six to 10 of the storms could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher.

This year's season could also spawn anywhere from three to six major hurricanes rated a category 3 or higher, forecasters said.