2 Tropical Weather Disturbances Eyed By National Hurricane Center

TAMPA, FL — Batten down the hatches, grab the flashlights and prepare for a wild ride this summer as hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin officially kicks off Wednesday with a potential for two hurricanes to develop near Florida.

Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Wednesday that the center is keeping a close watch on two disorganized storms that could potentially develop into tropical cyclones later this week.

After making landfall Monday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane just west of Puerto Angel, Mexico, Hurricane Agatha rapidly weakened into a low-pressure system, Graham said.

However, radar and satellite data now shows it has a 70 percent possibility of reorganizing in the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week and threaten the west coast of Florida, he said.

"Global model guidance continues to suggest that Agatha's remnants will become absorbed by a larger low-level cyclonic gyre (a pattern of spinning winds) over southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, with that new system having development potential over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late this week," Graham said.

He said meteorologists are predicting a 30 percent chance that the remnants of Agatha will form into Tropical Depression Alex over the next two days and a 70 percent chance of it developing into a more-sinister tropical cyclone within the next five days.

If that occurs, it will likely form anywhere between the Yucatán and the southern tip of Florida, he said.

After two nights of severe thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday along the west coast of Florida, Graham said, Agatha's remnants and its large, developing pattern of spinning winds will continue to cause heavy rains on the coast this week.

"Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days," he said.

The Atlantic hurricane season’s first tropical depression is expected to slice across the Florida Peninsula with torrential rain and produce building seas and rough surf in the region, AccuWeather said.

Meteorologists say there is already some risk that the burgeoning tropical rainstorm, which would be named Alex once it hits the 39 mph maximum sustained winds threshold for a tropical storm, could cross Florida at the end of this week and then the northern Bahamas this weekend.

As Hurricane Agatha moved inland over Mexico and dissipated on Monday, two areas of circulation were left behind. Of the two circulations that emerged on either side of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has emerged as the more dominant one, AccuWeather said.

If Agatha reforms and reaches tropical storm strength of 39 mph sustained winds, it will become the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Alex.

At this point, Graham said it's too early to predict what the storm will do, however. He said it could weaken further and disperse by this weekend.

In the meantime, the National Hurricane Center is studying European models that show a stronger storm forming that could slam into southwest Florida.

The NHC said it's still too early to forecast the track of this storm, but it could strengthen once it hits the warm waters in the southern Gulf of Mexico and then quickly intensify.

Right now, it's a weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas and is producing disorganized showers.

At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists expect the tropical rainstorm to become a tropical depression over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, prior to reaching the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Friday night and Saturday. The system is likely to become a tropical storm while crossing Florida or perhaps just east of Florida.

The NHC said surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves east-northeastward over the next several days away from the southeastern United States, with only a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression.