'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For FL Hurricane Season

A developing El Niño — and a potential "Super El Niño" — will be one of the biggest forces driving the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

When sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual, we get La Niña. This summer is predicted to have warmer sea temperatures, forecasters say, and we are likely to have an El Niño pattern.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, but much of the activity occurs from mid-August through early October. With the timing of the El Niño, that would make for fewer storms during that time.

"Typically, El Niño creates stronger upper-level winds (wind shear) across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to take shape," AccuWeather forecasters said. "With El Niño forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, it is likely to translate to fewer storms during the second half of the hurricane season compared to the first half."

There's also an about 15 percent chance for a "Super El Niño," forecasters said. That would make for a sharp reduction in storm activity.

AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms for the upcoming hurricane season. The historical average is 14 named storms. Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts on the United States.

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"On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes," AccuWeather said.

Still, forecasters warn that “the risk of U.S. impacts remains elevated” this coming hurricane season, with the potential for rapid intensification over very warm waters and “homegrown development near the U.S. coastline.”

Exceptionally warm Atlantic waters extend hundreds of feet deep, which could fuel stronger storms that rapidly intensify.

“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”

It's worth noting that a hurricane season can still be dangerous even if it is below average.

"It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is," DaSilva said. "Even if it's expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."

He added, “There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache. Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”

The central and eastern Gulf Coast — including Florida — as well as the Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline, face a higher-than-average risk of significant tropical impacts this year, forecasters said.

Last year, no storms made landfall in Florida, and only Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in the U.S., bringing heavy rains and flooding to North Carolina, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

Though the U.S. was largely spared, there were 13 named storms during the 2025 hurricane season, five of which became hurricanes, including four major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater, the NOAA said.