Hurricanes Likely To Ramp Up After Labor Day: What FL Should Know

While there’s a lull in the Atlantic over Labor Day weekend, Florida will still face a rainy holiday weekend. And, tropical activity is expected to increase by mid-September, AccuWeather forecasters said.

September and October are historically the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season and the warning of the tropics heating up comes Friday on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans and surrounding areas as a powerful Category 5 storm.

Following Hurricane Erin and Tropical Storm Fernand in recent weeks, forecasters warn that conditions will become more favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic as September progresses.

After these systems, cooler water temperatures churned up by Erin and dry air have squashed tropical development across the Atlantic, meteorologists said.

“The tropical wave train is expected to ramp up in September. The next tropical wave that pushes off Africa this weekend should displace some dry and dusty air in the Atlantic, helping to create more conducive atmospheric conditions for tropical development by the second week of September,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

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“Labor Day 2024 was also quiet in terms of tropical activity, but the hurricane season still produced 18 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Hurricane Milton was the most intense, reaching Category 5 with peak sustained winds of 180 mph,” AccuWeather said.

The Gulf is currently ripe for rapid storm intensification, forecasters added.

A tropical wave is expected to move off Africa’s west coast on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Slow development is expected with the environmental conditions as the system moves west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week, the NHC said.

The area has a low 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next week, forecasters said.

By the second week of September, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to shift into the Atlantic, which is expected to kick off increased tropical activity, meteorologists said.

Despite the break in the tropics, the Southeast will get soaked over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms will move from the northeastern Gulf to the Carolinas, AccuWeather said.

“About a month left to go in our rainy season. Accordingly, rain chances will be on the rise this weekend. Not a washout, but decent rain chances both days. Especially Sunday. Some of the rain will be locally heavy,” Fox 13’s Paul Dellagatto wrote in a Facebook post.

Florida and the Southeast will see periods of rain, as well as gusty winds and, possibly, windspouts, experts said.

“It will be a soggy and stormy Labor Day weekend across much of Florida and the Southeast. It could be a washout in some places. Make sure you have a backup option for outdoor events, and a safe place for people to go if thunder rumbles nearby,” DaSilva said.