Tropical Depression Chances Increase For Storm System Off FL's Gulf Coast

The National Hurricane Center on Saturday said a storm system located off Florida's Gulf coast now has a greater chance of becoming a tropical depression over the coming week.

In a forecast released Saturday afternoon, the NHC said a broad area of low pressure is forming over the eastern Gulf of Mexico; however, the system — now called Invest 91-L — currently remains disorganized with light winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Forecasters said gradual development is possible over the next several days, and the system could become a tropical depression as it slowly moves north-northwest.

As of 2 p.m. Saturday, NHC forecasters said the system has a 30% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next seven days.

If Invest 91L becomes better organized, the National Hurricane Center would classify it as a tropical depression once it develops a well-defined center of circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

If sustained winds increase to 39 mph or higher, it would become a tropical storm.

The next named storm for this season is Bertha. The first system of the season, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed on June 17 off the Texas coast.

Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a social media post that northerly shear should limit intensification.

"However, very warm Gulf water temps will aid in at least some development, and a tropical storm may form before the system moves onshore along the northern Gulf coast in a few days," he continued.

Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall to Florida’s west coast and parts of the Panhandle over the next several days. Localized flooding is possible where the heaviest bands repeatedly move over the same locations.

While rainfall totals are down from Friday, the system is still likely to produce between 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally higher totals around 6 inches possible along Florida's Gulf coast, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Daily Forecast

Check out the latest forecast from the National Weather Service:

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 99. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 5pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 100. South wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. South southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. South southwest wind 3 to 8 mph.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.