Snow Chances Along FL Gulf Coast Increase, Forecasters Say

A weather system moving into Florida this weekend is expected to bring record-cold temperatures to much of the state and even the possibility of snow flurries along the Gulf Coast, forecasters said.

There’s a 10 to 20 percent chance of snow flurries along much of the state’s central west coast down into Southwest Florida late Saturday into Sunday, the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay posted to X. The flurries could start around 10 or 11 p.m. could possibly fall until about 7 a.m.

The last time it snowed in the greater Tampa Bay area was Jan. 9, 2010, the agency said.

This weekend’s potential gulf-effect snow is similar to the lake-effect snow that falls up north when much colder air moves over warm water.

During Florida's weekend’s cold front, the gulf’s moist air could rise into the colder air moving in. Because the colder air can’t hold much moisture, it falls as precipitation — which could be snow, if it’s cold enough, Bay News 9 said.

Those expecting a winter wonderland might be disappointed, though.

“We do not expect this to stick to the ground,” the NWS said.

The air might be too dry for snow to hit the ground at all, Bay News 9 said. “In the most ideal situation for gulf-effect snow this weekend, some isolated snow flurries are possible early Sunday morning before sunrise. If they happen, it likely won’t last long.”

There are some good signs for those “rooting for snow flurries near Tampa Bay,” though, WFLA’s Jeff Berardelli wrote in a social media post.

As of Wednesday around 10 p.m., the Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting system clearly showed gulf-effect bands setting up already by Saturday at 7 p.m., which is when that particular model ended, he wrote.

“Upper level temps are already plenty cold for snow. Surface temps are just a touch too warm (but plummeting) so it shows coastal rain showers. But surface temps won’t need to be freezing… really all that is needed is temps to drop to [36 to 38 degrees] for wet flakes to fly because temps at [2,000 to 5,000 feet] up are 10-15 [degrees] below freezing. By late evening it will be cold enough at the surface in some spots.”

“SNOW??? We've been joking about it for a week. NOW, it's actually in the NWS forecast. Models are even predicting a ‘dusting’ in some spots,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a social media post, adding, “I've worked here 35 years, I have NEVER seen snow in our zone forecasts before from the NWS.”

The chance of snow increases the farther north and west you go in the Tampa Bay region. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has that chance around 50 percent for northern counties in the area, Phillips said.

“Now, before anyone clears the Publix bread aisle or dusts off the sleds from 1977, here's the deal. Cold air? Yep. Moisture? Just enough to tease us. Margarita salt on the sidewalk? Nope,” he wrote. “If flurries happen, they’ll be brief, spotty, and mostly something to look at, not measure. Think ‘Did you see that?’ rather than ‘Can I use the leaf blower to clear off the snow’ (Yes, you can, btw.)”