Poll Shows Carson Lead in Franklin Race

SunTrust finance manager John Carson has a slim lead in the five-person special election to fill the seat held by the late state Rep. Bobby Franklin (R-east Cobb), but perhaps not enough to avoid a run-off, a poll conducted for the Journal shows.

Former state Sen. Robert Lamutt, who is trailing Carson by less than the poll’s margin of error, is leading the race in fundraising.

The phone survey, conducted on Tuesday by InsiderAdvantage/RosettaStone, asked, “If the election for state representative were to be held today, for whom would you vote?”

Of the 356 people polled, 19.8 percent chose John Carson, 17.3 percent said Lamutt, 11.6 percent said Roy C. Barnes, 11.4 percent said Dr. Geraldine Wade and 4.9 percent said Don Hill.

Thirty-five percent had no opinion.

Polls will be open Tuesday for the 30,101 active voters in House District 43. A run-off election, if needed, will be Oct. 18.

InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery said the poll has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

“I would be doubtful if anyone wins it without a runoff,” Towery said. “The ‘no opinion’ you see usually is indicative of the fact that those people aren’t going to vote. We’re so late in the game, and these candidates can’t get that well-known. It’s not like you’re running for president.”

Name recognition and motivation are two factors that play together in a stand-alone race for the Georgia House of Representatives, he said.

“I don’t know who Mr. Carson is, but he is leading,” Towery said. “He’s within the margin of error. He leads outside the margin of error of Roy C. Barnes and Dr. Wade. The interesting thing will be to see if in the last minute one of these two other candidates makes it into the runoff, Barnes or Wade. Right now, Lamutt — I do know Lamutt — is holding a tight second place, but there is room within the margin of error for one of these other people to do enough to potentially get it. I wouldn’t expect it. Certainly Barnes, that is purely people thinking that that’s (former Governor) Roy Barnes.

Roy C. Barnes, a real estate salesman, is not related to the former governor.

In the poll, Barnes received 5.9 percent of the Republican vote, but 15.9 percent of the independent vote and 34 percent of the Democrat vote.

“So that’s sort of a thing to watch,” Towery said. “But right now, it’s a race I think that unless something changes you’ll have Mr. Carson and someone else in a runoff.”

Janine Eveler, director of Cobb County Elections & Registration, said as of Wednesday night 51 people had voted in person and 69 mail ballots had been returned with an additional 109 mail ballots that have been issued but not yet returned.

Most of the time, to do well in a special election requires name recognition, ability to raise money quickly, and some kind of organized effort to “get out the vote,” said Dr. Kerwin Swint, a political science professor at Kennesaw State University.

“Although he hasn’t been in office for awhile, Lamutt still retains some name identification,” Swint said. “Perhaps more important, he has raised significant money, although most of it is from PACs, commercial interests he does business with, and elected officials. But that financial support may bring with it some organizational support for ‘G.O.T.V.’ efforts, and some key endorsements that might bring in some votes. I’d say Lamutt is the Republican establishment candidate.”

Lamutt lists total contributions of $18,660 with a net balance of $10,144. That includes $6,000 Lamutt loaned himself. Other contributions include $500 from Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, $250 from Friends of Matt Dollar, $250 from Friends of Sam Teasley, $250 from the Republican Leadership Fund of Atlanta, $1,000 from the Georgia Association of Realtors PAC of Doraville, $1,000 from Cobb County Association of Educators PAC, $1,000 from Stephen Isaf of Marietta, president of Interra International; $4,000 from Robert and Kimberly Scarmazzo of West Palm Beach, Fla., $1,000 from ENGL Properties Group LLC, which shares the same address as Lamutt; $1,000 from Win-Pac of Atlanta, $500 from Georgia Wholesalers for Better Government of Atlanta, $500 from AIA-Seinpac GA of Atlanta, $250 from ATT Georgia PAC, $250 from GAHU PAC of Woodstock, and $200 from Georgia Mining Assn. Committee for Good Government of Macon, among others.

Lamutt lists a $7,000 expense with BRIKEL Communications of Canton for signs and mailings, and $1,069 for campaign manager Jade Morey of Atlanta.

Like Towery, Swint said he didn’t know Carson either, calling him “a complete unknown,” at least to him, but the fact that Carson has been able to raise some money could speak well.

“He will have to move quickly and forcefully to overcome his lack of name recognition with the voters,” Swint said.

Carson lists $18,984 in contributions to date, which includes a $12,600 loan. His net balance listed is $13,191.

Carson contributors include $1,000 from Mike Livingston of Odessa, Fl., $1,000 from James Carson of Keller, Texas, $1,000 from Robert Nicholl of Alpharetta, with Hitachi Consulting, $500 from James Gruber of Roswell, director of Optimal IMX; $250 from King & Spalding attorney Mason Stephenson, $300 from Janice Weber of Marietta and $250 from SunTrust Bank Good Government Group, among others.

Carson’s expenditures include $5,321 for letter and mailing service with The Stoneridge Group of Alpharetta.

The campaign contribution disclosure report for Barnes is blank, according to the Georgia Government Transparency and Campaign Finance Commission.

As former chair of the Cobb Republican Party, Hill is known to many Republicans, but not as well-known as Lamutt, Swint said.

“I don’t have any evidence for this, but I suspect his negatives might be higher than Lamutt’s,” Swint said.

Hill was Cobb school board member David Banks’ appointment on the Facilities and Technology Review Committee, until he resigned to run for the House seat.

“Based on his financial report, he also won’t have the organizational and material support of Lamutt, because his campaign is largely self-funded,” Swint said.

Hill loaned himself $20,000 and lists no contributions to date with a net balance of $15,157. Hill spent $2,205 with Hi-Tech Signs of Rome and $1,155 with North Georgia Mailing Service, Inc of Carnesville.

Wade suffers from low name recognition and little money raised, at least as of the date of the filing, although that could change, Swint said.

Wade lists total contributions of $3,870 with a net balance of $117. Contributors include $2,000 from Emily Wade of Marietta, $900 from Christine Glavey of Acworth and $250 from Ron Smith of McDonough. Expenditures include $1,206 with Hi Tech Signs of Rome.
Read more: The Marietta Daily Journal - MDJ poll shows Carson has lead in Franklin race