2022 Fall Forecast: See What’s In Store For Illinois

ILLINOIS — As much of the country swelters through the dog days of summer, it’s hard to fathom that meteorological autumn is less than a month away. But forecasters are already releasing their predictions for when Illinois residents can expect weather perfect for hoodies and pumpkin spice everything.

AccuWeather has released its 2022 fall forecast, which calls for a "major weather shift" in October. September might not feel too different from summer, according to AccuWeather, but October could bring severe weather and cooler air.

AccuWeather said that the widespread warmth in September could delay when the leaves start to turn. However, "the wait could be worth it this year," because beautiful colors would unfold on the hillsides of the Great Lakes.

After warmth in September, AccuWeather said an increase in moisture will promote a rainy start to autumn, which could also bring severe weather to the area.

Meteorological autumn kicks off Sept. 1 and continues through Nov. 30. While autumn doesn’t officially start until the Sept. 22 equinox, forecasters use consistent dates each year to easily compare one season to another.

To determine its fall forecast, AccuWeather forecasters used data from computer models while also analyzing weather patterns around the globe and past years.

After combining these factors, the AccuWeather team condensed its seasonal outlook into one word: warm.

“With pretty good confidence this year, I think it's a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.,” Pastelok said.

Here’s what other parts of the country could expect:

• In September, millions of residents in the Northeast won’t feel much of a change when it comes to temperature. Expect the first frost of the season to arrive one or two weeks earlier than normal across the Upper Midwest and upstate New York.

• For the third consecutive year, La Niña will supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season, which will lead to a higher threat of tropical systems making landfall this autumn.

• Drought conditions are expected to ease across the Northeast and Southeast. However, abnormally dry conditions will remain throughout most of the central United States in places like Texas, eastern New Mexico and western Kansas.

Widespread and long-term drought is expected to fuel another active wildfire season in the West. The worst of the fires are expected to develop in areas different than 2021.