Illinois Coronavirus Deaths Could Double By Feb. 1: Report

ILLINOIS — Coronavirus deaths in Illinois are expected to double by the end of January, with the state again hitting an average of 100 deaths per day shortly after Thanksgiving and continuing on that path into the New Year, according to a highly cited coronavirus projection model. COVID-19 regularly killed more than 100 people per day in the state between mid-April through the end of May, but deaths dramatically tapered off over the summer.

Deaths did not tip over 40 until recent weeks, and Illinois recorded its first day with more than 50 deaths since June 24 on Thursday, according to Illinois Department of Public Health statistics. The state is currently averaging 30 deaths per day, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) projects that daily death rate will steadily continue to rise in the coming weeks, with an average of 50 deaths per day by Nov. 6.

By the end of November, the average number of people dying per day will tip over 100 and that trend will continue into the New Year, according to projections.

The model, which The Washington Post has called "America's most influential coronavirus model," projects coronavirus deaths will reach 18,097 in Illinois by the end of January, which is nearly double the 9,127 deaths reported as of Thursday. That amounts to 9,013 more deaths expected in 3.5 months, according to Illinois Department of Public Health statistics.

• Illinois Coronavirus Update Oct. 15: 327,605 Cases, 9,074 Deaths

Overall, the authors are predicting the United States will experience 394,693 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 1. As of Thursday, the nationwide death toll stood at 217,374, meaning the model anticipates more than 177,000 additional deaths by February.

"At the national level, daily cases remain constant and deaths have declined slightly. Several states in the Midwest have begun the fall/winter surge," the authors conclude. "Given some improvements in components IHME's modeling, we expect the number of daily deaths to reach 2,250 in mid-January. The fall/winter surge timing in each state will depend on actions by individuals and the speed of reaction to the surge by different governors or other local government officials."

The widely-cited IHME model is not without its detractors. Researchers writing in The Annals of Internal Medicine criticized the simulation for its grounding "not on transmission dynamics but on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis." The researchers chalked the popularity of the IHME's work up to our collective fear of the unknown, noting the "appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead."

>>>Read their full analysis for IL here

Hospitalizations across the state have jumped 6.8 percent from Tuesday and nearly 12 percent since Monday. As of Tuesday night, 1,974 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 across the state, including 390 in intensive care and 153 on ventilators, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health.

The IHME model predicts Illinois will run out of available intensive care unit beds in December. The projection finds that the 1,131 intensive care beds available across the state will not be enough for the 1,151 patients that need the beds. The number of ICU beds will continue to rise through Dec. 18, when 1,334 beds will be needed, before starting to decline and dropping below capacity in early January.

The hospital bed projections come with a high level of uncertainty, according to IHME model authors, and ICU bed availability could range from 750 to 1,805 beds needed on the Dec. 18 peak date. Taking into account that level of uncertainty, there could be anywhere between 350 beds available and 674 ICU beds needed.

"When using this tool for planning, it is important to pay attention to the full range of values, particularly the highest," the authors write, suggesting medical professionals should plan for a surge that will require more equipment and beds.

Meanwhile, the statewide test positivity rate — a rolling, seven-day average — ticked up another tenth of a percentage point to 4.6 percent on Wednesday.

According to Johns Hopkins University, a positivity rate of less than 5 percent is a good measure of whether enough tests are being conducted, and state officials have said a rate higher than 8 percent will trigger new restrictions in a given region.

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