February Temperature Outlook: When Will Illinois Get Break From Cold

After a few weeks of frigid temperatures, many Chicago area residents are probably wondering when the sunnier, warmer days of spring will arrive. Just so you know, the coldest day ever in Illinois was on Jan. 31, 2019, when it was -38 degrees, so, it could always be worse than the last few weeks with 20 below zero wind chill.

We mention that for perspective because multiple forecasts suggest the extreme cold that settled into the Midwest in late January will stick around through the early part of February.

The last full month of winter usually brings an average temperature in the mid-20s for the Chicago area, according to National Weather Service data. At the start of February, temperatures are an average of 25.2 degrees, and by the end of the month, we do see a bit of a warm-up, as the average temperature is 31.7 degrees.

This year, February temperatures in Illinois have about an equal chance of being above or below normal, according to an updated outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. (Is that good or bad? We're not sure.)

Despite fading La Niña conditions over the coming weeks, some lingering effects are expected to continue through April and perhaps into May, according to government forecasters.

On X, Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll said in a post on X that compared to average, temperatures from Dec. 1-Jan. 31 were the coldest in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland, while Wyoming, Utah, Nevada and Idaho have been warmest.

Temperatures in Illinois have been about 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit below average, according to Noll’s data.

AccuWeather said Monday that near-record cold will continue in the Midwest and Northeast through much of February, giving cities such as Detroit, New York and Boston their coldest winter in eight years.

AccuWeather lead long-range forecast meteorologist Paul Pastelok said the blasts of cold air that will continue in the first half of February may not be “quite as extreme” as last month.

The cold is courtesy of a familiar wintertime nemesis, the polar vortex. Not all winter cold is polar vortex-related; however, this storm, which typically holds the coldest air near the Arctic Circle, has recently shifted and weakened, allowing frigid air to move southward, AccuWeather said.

“We are monitoring a potential polar vortex disruption in early February that can give an extra boost to the cold in the eastern U.S., about seven to 10 days later,” Pastelok said. “Sudden warming high up in the atmosphere, or stratosphere, tends to set off a polar vortex displacement. That displacement may add more fury to a storm prior to the middle of the month and then more punch to the cold that follows that storm in the U.S.”

Accuweather gave a forecast of "persistent cold" for Illinois from Feb. 5-Feb. 10.

The Weather Channel said much of the northern tier of the country is expected to see below-average temperatures, with the Northeast and upper Michigan seeing the coldest weather with highs in the 20s and 30s.

Temperatures in the southern tier of the country vary greatly by altitude, with average February highs ranging from the 30s to the 70s, AccuWeather said. Most of the West is expected to continue to experience above-average temperatures.

February temperatures for northern Illinois are expected to be below average, according to that outlook.

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