Here's How El Nińo Could Take Over Illinois In 2026

The La Niña pattern may have brought a snowy start to winter in Chicago back in November and early December, however, the climate pattern is already weakening and likely to shift toward neutral conditions in early 2026, according to climate experts.

La Niña typically brings cold and wetter than normal weather to the northern United States, and the southern states tend to be warmer and drier than usual.

Chicago saw its snowiest start to winter in over 40 years, with multiple snowfalls at the end of November and through mid-December. However, the snow started to taper off a bit before Christmas, and there was no snow on the ground by Christmas Day.

However, there's a 75% chance that the current La Niña pattern will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March 2026, according to the Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA’s National Weather Service. ENSO-neutral conditions, which fall between El Niño and La Niña, are expected to last through at least late spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

In December 2025, La Niña conditions were still evident across the Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures remained below average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Atmospheric patterns also continued to align with La Niña, including stronger-than-usual easterly winds and increased rainfall over Indonesia, with drier conditions near the international date line, the climate center said.

At the same time, scientists observed early signs of change beneath the ocean’s surface. Temperatures became slightly warmer, with heat spreading eastward at deeper levels of the Pacific — a shift that often signals La Niña is beginning to weaken.

Climate forecast models from U.S. and international agencies agree that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to develop early this year. Even after that transition, forecasters say La Niña could still influence weather patterns into early spring.

Looking further ahead, models show increasing chances that El Niño could develop later in 2026, though scientists caution there is still uncertainty. Forecast accuracy tends to be lower during the spring, making long-range outlooks less reliable, NOAA said.

Changes in ENSO phases can affect weather patterns worldwide, including rainfall, temperatures and storm tracks across the United States.

El Niño years are often linked to wetter conditions in parts of the West and milder winters in northern regions, though conditions can vary.

READ MORE: Chicago Sees Snowiest Start To Winter Since 1978