Month-By-Month Spring, Summer Forecast Released For Illinois

Illinoisans looking forward to warmer weather this spring and early summer may get more than they bargained for, according to a new federal outlook.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal temperature outlook for May, June and July, showing an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the country, including in Illinois.

A federal outlook shows increased chances of above-normal temperatures across much of the Northeast, including Connecticut, from May through July 2026. Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The outlook indicates a higher probability of warmer conditions compared to historical averages, though it does not guarantee specific temperatures on any given day.

Illinois has a "leaning above" chance for above normal temperatures. The only parts of the country that don't have an above normal chance for above normal temperatures, are parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota.

Meanwhile, precipitation in Illinois is expected to fall within “equal chances,” meaning there is no strong signal for either wetter- or drier-than-normal conditions during the period. May typically has 4.49 inches of precipitation; June has 4.1 inches; and July has 3.71 inches of precipitation on average, according to National Weather Service data.

The temperature outlook is part of NOAA’s long-range forecasting, which uses climate patterns and historical data to assess trends over several months.

Forecasters update the outlook regularly, meaning conditions and probabilities may shift as summer approaches.