NOAA Releases Winter 2026-2027 Outlook For Chicago Area

The NOAA and National Weather Service have released its winter 2026-2027 outlook, and the agencies' forecast is lining up with what many other forecasters are calling for this winter.

"A very strong to historically strong El Niño will influence weather patterns through the winter season," the weather service shared on its Facebook page.

For the Chicago area, the weather service and NOAA said that above normal temperatures are favored for December through February.

Here’s What The Newest El Niño Winter Forecast Says About Snow In Illinois

As for precipitation, confidence is lower on what to expect. The NWS said it is thinking precipitation will be "roughly near average," but strong El Niño events in the past have brought below average seasonal snowfall. Confidence is medium to high on below normal snowfall.

The weather service said there have only been six very strong El Niño events, so it is a small sample size for any firm conclusions.

"We're still likely to experience at least a few periods of noteworthy cold weather," the weather service said. The snow cover would play a large role in determining temperatures.

According to weather service data, the average date for the first trace of snow in Chicago is Oct. 31. First measurable snow average date is Nov. 18, and the first 1+ inch accumulation average date is Dec. 7.

No snowfall has occured yet this fall for chicago.