NFL Preview Chicago Bears vs Vikings-Will Viking loss confirm NFC North's "Jared Diamond" style collapse?

Subscribe

When football historians look back at the National Football League of the 2020s, they will focus heavily on the Dan Campbell era in Detroit. Or, more accurately, the rapid collapse of the Lions during that era. Following a series of key departures, the Lions pulled an "Attila," and the dream of a potential dynasty vanished within a single year.

If the NFL wants a proper autopsy of the Detroit Lions' demise, Commissioner Roger Goodell should consider hiring Jared Diamond, author of Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. If you need someone to analyze a catastrophic downfall, nobody beats Diamond. He could easily pen a New York Times bestseller and pick up another Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction.

Lions fans vividly remember Campbell's first year at the helm in 2021, when the team finished at the bottom of the NFC North with a dismal 3-13-1 record. In 2022, they started a miserable 1-6 but rallied, winning eight of their last ten games. Their season finale revealed a bright light at the end of the tunnel, hinting at potential greatness as they played spoiler, defeating the Green Bay Packers 20-16 to knock them out of the postseason.

By 2023, things got real interesting. The Lions finished 12-5, captured the NFC North division title, and narrowly missed a Super Bowl berth in a heartbreaking 31-34 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.Before the 2024 season kicked off, the Talking Heads of corporate sports media overwhelmingly projected Detroit to win the Super Bowl. And it looked like that was going to happen. The Lions excelled in the regular season, cruising to a 15-2 record, only for fans to watch them get crushed 31-45 by the Washington Commanders in the divisional playoff round. That loss offered the first real clue to the impending collapse: the team was utterly exhausted, and Dan Campbell was either oblivious to it or refused to adjust his strategy to protect his players.

When great NFL teams fall, the obvious question is: Why? If you apply Diamond's concepts to football, you must understand a vital truth: players are a strictly limited resource. The Lions simply ran out of bodies due to injuries—injuries that could have been completely avoided had Campbell reined in his hyper-aggressive approach. Instead, he kept pushing the Lions the same way a bad jockey whips a racehorse in the first three-quarters of a mile, only to watch it collapse in the final stretch. As Diamond would put it, Campbell used up his limited resources faster than they could be replenished.

Another core Diamond concept is the loss of "allies." In the NFL, players, coaches, and staff are both resources and crucial allies. The ultimate blow fell when offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left to become the head coach of the rival Chicago Bears, while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn took over the New York Jets. Suddenly, Campbell's world became a living nightmare. The descent was blindingly fast. In 2025, the Lions went from Super Bowl favorites to finishing dead last in the NFC North, completely unable to win their own division.

Jared Diamond proved that long-established societies can collapse rapidly over a decade or two. The only difference in the NFL is the timeline: great teams don't take decades to turn to dust. For the Detroit Lions, Dan Campbell proved he could do it in a year.

So, what do Jared Diamond, the Detroit Lions, limited resources, Attila the Hun, missing allies, and a history book have to do with handicapping a football game? Everything. Read my Circa Million and Survivor selections and learn. On that note: The Picks:

1). Buffalo Bills (-5) Once again, the corporate media Talking Heads anointed the Lions as kings of the NFC North and Super Bowl contenders before any games had played. Then reality set in as a supposedly lowly Saints team nearly pulled off an overtime upset. Buffalo is the easiest pick of the week. *Circa Survivor pick*

2). NY Jets (+3) You've just read about a team collapse; now let's look at a team reversing course to rise. Look no further than the NY Jets. Last week, the Jets defeated the Titans (who already look like the worst team in the NFL). Critics will say, "It's just the Titans, they stink!" True, but good teams beat bad teams. Meanwhile, the Packers still have Matt LaFleur, who ESPN 1000 sports radio personality Mike North describes on his weekly Odds Couple radio show as "....(a guy who) walks around the sideline like he's won a Super Bowl".