'Either Democrat' Would Be Favored Against Donald Trump in General Election: Prof

EVANSTON, IL - Donald Trump’s GOP primary win in Illinois Tuesday night was no surprise, but he won’t have much of a chance here come November and will be the underdog nationally regardless of who comes out of the Democratic primary.

That’s according to Thomas Ogorzalek, a professor of political science at Northwestern, who shared his reaction to both the wins by Trump and Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton with Patch Tuesday night after the races were called.

“Trump did about as well as expected based on recent polls in Illinois, and about as well as he has been doing in other states--about 40 percent,” Ogorzalek said. “It's possible he got a very small bump from his non-rally in Chicago on Friday, but he had already led in every Illinois poll so far this year.”

“Given that his campaign doesn't appear to do much by way of traditional political organizing, these voters seem to be responding to Trump's mix of messages.”

But turnout and enthusiasm was much higher on the Democratic side in Illinois on Tuesday. Both Clinton and Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders received more than twice the number of votes Trump had.

At Northwestern precincts - where voter turnout is usually significantly lower than others in Evanston - Ogorzalek said there were long lines Tuesday and “an extremely high turnout among Northwestern undergraduates,” noting that Sanders won voters under 30 by 70 points.

In the city of Chicago, 88 percent took Democratic ballots and Trump was also weaker than both Clinton and Sanders in Chicago suburban counties, he added.

Clinton’s win over Sanders in Illinois was expected, although Sanders had made big gains before Tuesday with a surprise victory in Michigan.

“The effects were just not enough to get him over the hump to win here,” Ogorzalek said. “But his close relationship with the growing progressive organization in Chicago (for example his endorsement by and commercial featuring Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, endorsement by United Working Families, and the association between Emanuel and Clinton) helped narrow the gap among African Americans and Latinos.”

Still, totals show Clinton dominated among African Americans and women, while Sanders had an edge with whites and men.

Clinton’s strength in the urban areas of Chicago and East St. Louis made for a big night for her in Illinois, and won in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Missouri as well.

It “makes her nomination even more likely,” according to Ogorzalek.

“Either Democrat, at present, would be the favorite against any of the remaining Republican candidates, both in Illinois and nationally, but our current polarization means that no election will be comfortable in the near future.”