Iowa: Trend-Setter Or Outlier?

I just returned from a week of vacation visiting with family in Florida. All of them wanted to know: who's gonna win Iowa?

I pointed out to them that a recent poll revealed that 60 percent of prospective caucus goers haven't definitively made a choice.

It is still undecided whether the GOP caucus in Iowa on Jan. 3 will propel a candidate to the nomination or simply cull the field. As much as I like Mike Huckabee, his Iowa win ultimately resulted in a whole handful of nothin'. So will Iowa results set a trend or simply be an outlier?

I'm not convinced that the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain prevent him from winning. His passionate supporters roll their eyes at the moral indignation of the party of Bill Clinton and they accuse the media of spotlighting sexual allegations against Republicans while downplaying similar charges against Democrats.

Newt Gingrich is surging in polls, but the evangelicals who comprise a large share of caucus attendees aren't comfortable with him and may still split their vote in a manner that benefits Mitt Romney.

One guy who understands how to win a caucus is Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican, and he made an important point in a conversation that I had with him earlier this month: winning the caucus takes enthusiasm AND organization.

In that light, Newt Gingrich is still trying to get organized. But Ron Paul is in good shape.

I'm not hedging...as the caucus draws near, I'll give you my thoughts on how things will go. But it's Nov. 28 and I've yet to get a clear read on how things are going to shake out.