It Began In Iowa For Obama, It Will End In Iowa For Obama

Many people can't wait for the election to be over.   I will be sorry that I can't play around with the "Create Your Own Electoral Map" feature on RealClearPolitics.com.

Both sides have reason to believe that their candidate will prevail on Tuesday.  But Democrats seem to be engaging in more eye-rolling at the optimism of Republicans.   The Battlestate Polls show Obama with a consistent, if small, lead.  And it's generally accepted that a campaign that says it will "defy the pollsters" is a losing campaign, right?

This post by Reid Wilson at the National Journal is the most sober, non-partisan look at this cycle's polls that I've seen and he clearly explains why Democrats and Republicans are seeing different results within their polling numbers.

In summary, Democrats expect a higher turn-out among minorities and young voters than Republicans.  If the Democratic turn-out model is correct, then Republican assumptions are completely wrong.  

But Republicans are assuming that the country is going back to a more equally divided partisan divide.  All things being equal, the candidate winning the independents wins the election, correct?

Well, not necessarily.  This CNN poll is a good example:  Romney is up 22 among independents, but only ties with Obama in the topline number because of the turn-out model utilized by CNN.   

That's what is driving GOPers crazy.

Republicans say their party is a victim of media bias—but not in the standard "Lamestream Media" sort of way. Pollsters on both sides try to persuade public surveyors that their voter-turnout models are more accurate reflections of what's going to happen on Election Day. This year, GOP pollsters and strategists believe those nonpartisan pollsters are adopting Democratic turnout models en masse.

As to my own prediction:  I think Obama wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Romney surprises in Wisconsin.  That means the state that started it all for Obama--Iowa--determines the election.  And Romney wins Iowa .  And the screams of my Democratic friends in this blog's home state will be heard all the way to Chicago.   Final electoral college prediction:  273-265 for Romney.