The "Gingrich Surge" is just simple addition

On Nov. 29

From Tara:

People can analyze the numbers all day long (and they will)...but the suggestion that Newt Gingrich's current position at or near the top of the Republican field has much to do with Gingrich himself is preposterous.  He's folding in the voters who've now had enough of a look at Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and all of the other also-rans to realize that those other candidates are not electable.

To me, the bigger story is why Romney's overall numbers aren't rising.  I think he's maxed out; this suggests to me that if he's the eventual nominee, he'll have a really challenging time getting traction among Gingrich's by-then-former supporters.  That those folks chose Gingrich, with all his baggage, over Romney, means something.

Unless he taps him for VP (can you even imagine?).  But even then, I think a top-of-the-ticket Romney will have very mushy support among significant segments of the Republican base.

To add a tiny bit of additional drama, the Mitt-ster, who can also do math, is quietly stoking expectations here in Iowa.  This press release from the Iowa Democratic Party just landed in my email inbox:


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: November 28, 2011

Romney Camp Raises Iowa Expectations

Des Moines – In a call with reporters today, when asked about the Romney’s expectations in Iowa, Romney campaign spokeswoman Gail Gitcho announced that “our strategy is to win there.”

After spending most of the cycle in the “Mittness protection program” and coming to Iowa only four times this year, it’s clear that Romney is now counting on a win in Iowa. This new admission of expectations comes just after Romney has made new investments in the state, opening an office in Des Moines and sending in additional staff.  And just this last week Romney launched his first round of ads in the state – touting his pro-life stance (but conveniently ignoring his earlier staunch pro-choice position) and his right-wing positions on immigration (which are drastically different from his views in 07).

Romney has attempted to run an under the radar campaign in Iowa, attempting to avoid the tough scrutiny that Iowa voters expect, but now that it’s clear Romney is going all in here in Iowa, he will have to answer tough questions about his record and his rhetoric.

As Mitt Romney goes all out to win Iowa, undoubtedly the battle of Mitt vs. Mitt will continue to play out here and throughout the country.