The Good News/Bad News for Rick Santorum

To the dismay of some pundits--and Jon Huntsman--who want to dismiss Iowa's value, Rick Santorum benefits from his hard work in the Hawkeye State by leaping to second place in the GOP presidential contest in a national poll.

The good news for Santorum is that his path to the nomination is clear: be the conservative around whom the "not-Romney" folk unite.

Here's the bad news: Santorum's big obstacle to achieving Romney-alternative status can be summed up in two words:

Newt Gingrich.

I had, at one time, considered going to caucus for Newt (full disclosure: I supported Mitt), but I am glad that I didn't. The new "negative" Newt doesn't appear as if he is changing campaign strategy. It appears that his ego is bruised and he wants to get all passive-aggressive on Romney.

That said, Newt will continue to draw a significant share of votes, as will Rick Perry. It can be assumed that Mitt will win New Hampshire and benefit from the crossover vote in the open South Carolina primary.

That means each vote for Gingrich and Perry will prevent Santorum from pulling the "not-Romney" vote together. Santorum would be in better shape had Perry and Gingrich called it quits after Iowa.

Perry remaining in the race makes sense: he's got money and he's heading toward the South. But Gingrich only appears to be engaging in a scorched earth strategy meant to punish Romney for the negative attack ads aired in Iowa. Ironically, Newt's ego may actually benefit Mitt.