The "Steady As He Goes" Strategy

As the year progressed, I found myself believing that the person who had "momentum" on Jan. 3 would win the Iowa caucus.

But with the news that Newt Gingrich's polling numbers are dropping in Iowa, I am beginning to believe the "steady as he goes" strategy. As a number of "not Romney" candidates have risen to the top, then withered under the front-runner spotlight, two candidates have plodded along in Iowa with consistent, double-digit numbers. This is caused by the failure of religious conservatives to unite behind a single candidate.

According to Real Clear Politics, Mitt Romney has been averaging 18 percent support in statewide polling, while Ron Paul averages 16.7.

Gingrich will continue to fall for the same reasons that other former front-runners have stumbled: Republican voters believe that the Presidential race is very winnable, but don't want to nominate someone who will make a huge mistake in 2012. Notice how this National Review editorial against Gingrich plays to those fears.

That means that Romney or Paul will finish first in Iowa. If Romney wins Iowa, he's likely to follow with a win in New Hampshire. It means that all this "not Romney" discussion has been fun fodder for journalists, but the final outcome will be what's been expected all along.