School's Out: Will Iowa College Kids Ditch the Caucuses?

Republicans did no favors to Iowa college students hoping to take part in the political process when the Iowa caucuses landed on January 3.

On that day, some dorms will be closed and many students will be home with friends and family over winter break. Cory Adams, Story County Republican co-chairman, said if Iowa had kept its original February 6 date, classes would have been in session and youth turnout would be higher.

“It does handicap the college vote,” Adams said.

GOP candidates have been regular faces on Iowa college campuses this year, and if older voter turnout is down at the 2012 Iowa caucuses as expected, it could open the door for younger voters to influence the outcome. Some students are shrugging off long drives back to Iowa and vow to show up, but many doubt students will turn out in any significant numbers.

Will college students make a difference in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses? Let us know in the comment section. And, don't forget Patch will have live coverage of the results on Jan. 3 as they come in.

Paul Camp: Caucus Date Not a Major Setback

Ron Paul may have the most to gain -- or lose -- depending on youth turnout.

On one hand, Paul could suffer if students as a whole stay home, but on the other hand he could turn a negative into a positive if his loyal young followers show up on caucus night while young voters for other candidates do not.

Paul is visiting Iowa State University in Ames on Thursday as part of the University's candidate lecture series and holding a “Youth for Ron Paul” rally at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls on Friday. That will give him 11 visits to Iowa colleges since March. Youth are key faces among his rabid following, and he routinely is at or near the top in polls of young voters.

"It's a problem mostly for Ron Paul. He has a lot of energetic, enthusiastic support from young voters. If they're not on campus or in town, it could help some of the others and hurt Paul," ISU political science professor Steffen Schmidt said.

Drew Ivers, Paul's Iowa campaign chairman, downplayed the impact, saying fervency will trump apathy.

“It will affect turnout,” Ivers predicted. “But it will for all the candidates. Because of the fervency of Ron Paul’s followers, a number of those students will still turn out. I don’t think it’s a major setback.”

Students Trying to Defy Doubters

At Iowa's three largest colleges -- University of Iowa, Iowa State and the University of Northern Iowa -- 36 percent of the student body, or 26,297 students, are from outside Iowa. That's a lot of potential caucus goers. 

"It's hard. You can't expect kids to stay back just for the caucus, especially since you're so close to the break," said Natalie Ginty, a University of Iowa student and chairwoman of the Iowa Federation of College Republicans.

"Half of our students will not be in town, so that really affects how people are going to turn out ... We do have a strong young movement in the state, so I think this (Jan. 3 caucus date) really hurts that.”

Some students are trying to defy the odds, and why not with the unemployment rate for 20 to 24-year-olds at 14.7 percent, and 23.3 percent for 18 to 19-year-olds? A number of students are taking a do-it-yourself approach to get to the caucuses by organizing carpools, arranging alerts by phone, email and text, and by offering housing to students coming in from afar.

U of I students Joey Gallagher and Adam Tarleton stood on campus last month collecting names for their candidate Ron Paul’s mailing list. The 19-year-olds from outside Chicago embody the grass-roots enthusiasm the Paul campaign has become known for. They are coordinating carpools to bring out-of-state students back to the Iowa City campus for Caucus.

Their university has the most out-of-state students, about 45 percent of them, many of them from the Chicagoland area or Minnesota.

"I think it's a disadvantage to us personally because Ron Paul really drives out the youth vote. But we have a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of organization, so I think we will be OK," Tarleton said.

The question is if enough of them will cut into their down time, set down holiday leftovers and perhaps drive hundreds of miles to support a candidate. At UNI, 90 percent of students are from Iowa, which means most will have the ability to caucus even if they’re home for the holidays.

“The pessimist of me says no, they’re not going to turn out,” UNI student body president Spencer Walrath said. “I really don’t think any candidates have really made a big impression on students.”

Youth Love Paul, But He's Not the Only One With Youth Support

Since September, the Paul campaign has organized 332 Youth for Ron Paul chapters in 46 states, including six on college campuses in Iowa, said Ani DeGroot, Youth for Ron Paul midwest regional director.

At the U of I, the Youth for Ron Paul chapter has more than 300 members.

Paul tied for first with Michele Bachmann with 47 percent of support from 18 to 29-year olds in Iowa in a Nov. 28 InsiderAdvantage poll. In a November Gallup Poll, Ron Paul and Herman Cain were the favored candidate among 18-29 year-olds, with Mitt Romney closely behind. In New Hampshire's Granite State Poll, Paul came in first among GOP voters ages 18 to 34, with 32 percent of the vote, trailed closely by Romney.

To be sure, Paul isn't the only candidate who has made in roads with college students, but some feel he is the only one who has generated any real loyalty. The Newt Gingrich, Bachmann and Romney campaigns did not return messages seeking comment.

"The campaigns don't seem to be making a particularly targeted effort to reach out to students," University of Iowa political science associate professor Tim Hagle said. "The one exception would be Ron Paul, where the students are the most organized and the campaign has consciously reached out to them ... The Paul campaign in particular is relying on that younger, college-aged turnout."

Candidates Not Reaching for Student Vote Like in 2008

For the 2008 Iowa caucuses, the Paul campaign encouraged students to stick around by giving them debit cards with a $40 per diem, and President Obama openly urged out-of-state students with flyers to come back to Iowa and opposing campaigns accused Obama of busing Chicagoland students in for the caucuses, although his campaign denied it. 

"I haven't heard of anyone this time that is going to do something like that," Hagle said.

Walrath, a registered independent, said he doesn’t see candidates reaching out to students the way many did four years ago, and without engagement from campaigns, he doesn’t think students will be motivated to caucus.

Youth Came Out on Jan. 3 in 2008. Why Not in 2012?

Story County Republican leaders are planning for the same kind of turnout as the January 2008 caucus, which similarly was pushed up to January 3 in the state's war to be first.

As with this election, some expected the winter break 2008 caucus date to hurt youth turnout, but participation from those aged 17-24 surged from 5 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement.

President Obama's candidacy seems like an easy answer given his popularity in 2007-08, but Republicans saw a surge, as well. Jim Lohr, co-chairman of the Story County Republicans, was told to plan for 50 people at his location in 2008, but 400 turned out. When Adams arrived at the Ames Middle School, his caucus site, he found a full parking lot and rows of cars lining Mortensen Road on both sides.

“I was surprised by the amount of college students at the time,” Adams said.

The Iowa Secretary of State reported the highest level of turnout in both parties in 2008 and a record number were young voters, ISU Professor Kimberly Conger wrote in the paper “College Student Participation in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.”

“Students are becoming more aware in general,” said Stephen Quist, an ISU student and head of the campus College Republicans. “It wouldn’t surprise me if it happened again in 2012.”