Ankeny School District Enrollment Numbers Could Top 13K in Ten Years

Enrollment numbers in the Ankeny school district are continuing to climb, according to one demographer, and the most affected buildings will continue to be district elementary schools.

Rob Schwarz, a demographer with RSP & Associates, updated the Ankeny school board with the latest enrollment projections for the district at the board’s regular meeting Monday night.

And according to Schwarz, enrollment numbers are growing faster than originally anticipated.

This year’s certified enrollment in the district was 9,272 students. That number is expected to climb nearly 2,000 students in the next five years, and enrollment could reach nearly 13,500 by the 2022-23 school year.

“You’re gaining 340 to 460 new students each year. Smaller classes are leaving and larger ones are coming in,” Schwarz told board members and school officials. “You will need additional elementary capacity. I said that last time, but the need has become more cumbersome because projections increased faster than what we said a while ago.”

This year’s enrollment jumped by almost 400 students from the 2011-12 school year. Schwarz’s original projection for this year was 9,269 students.

“The bulk of the growth is clearly at the elementary level,” Schwarz said. “It has to do with the type of housing being built and the demographics  moving into Ankeny.”

Right now, Schwarz said, the city is experiencing significant residential growth in areas served by Westwood, Northeast, Ashland Ridge and Prairie Trail elementary schools. More than 90 building permits have been issued for the Ashland Ridge area, Schwarz said.

According to numbers presented by Schwarz, Prairie Trail, Southeast, Westwood, Ashland Ridge and Crocker elementary schools are all projected to be over capacity by next year.

“Even if we just moved the boundaries and started allocating students to different facilities, you don’t have enough space,” Schwarz said. “If you don’t build elementary 10, it will be the 2015-16 school year when you run out of space because we keep seeing the potential for larger kindergarten classes.”

Schwarz said moving forward, the board needs to focus on what is happening with enrollment and how it relates to the district’s feeder system boundaries. He told members they also will need to address the best way to use current space and start laying out a plan to handle growing enrollment.

Ankeny Superintendent Bruce Kimpston said Schwarz’s work confirms the district will run out of space for kids using only the current facilities.

“As you look at projections, you see it’s not just about elementary 10, but the soon-to-follow elementary 11,” Kimpston said. “We are going to need three (elementary schools) in a relatively short time and we’re working hard on that.”