Ankeny School Enrollment Estimates Could Mean Years of Overcrowding

With several Ankeny elementary schools projected to be over capacity in the next five years, school board members may soon have to formulate a plan to address overcrowding.

Rob Schwarz, a demographer with RSP & Associates, updated the school board with the latest enrollment projections for the at the board’s regular meeting Monday night. During the presentation, Schwarz suggested the board think seriously about developing a plan to deal with predicted overcrowding at the elementary level.

“What I’m suggesting tonight is you’re about one school behind where you need to be to keep class sizes down and address space needs in your district,” Schwarz said.

RSP has been working with the Ankeny school district for five years, Schwarz said, and assisted the district in enrollment projections when it developed its current facility plan, which includes the transition to two high schools.

“We’re here to be a third, unbiased party and look at what the data suggests,” he said. “We’re not here to build buildings or create any conflicts.”

According to information presented to the board, there are 8,879 students enrolled in the district. The number of students will continue to grow, reaching almost 11,000 students by the 2016-17 school year.

This growth is caused by the rapid residential development in the city of Ankeny, Schwarz said. About 277 homes have been sold in Ankeny so far this year, he said, which accounts for 30 percent of total home sales in Polk County. West Des Moines is second with 121 homes.

“That says something about the district — people want to be here,” Schwarz said. “The school district has a huge impact as to why people move to this community.”

Schwarz said the current facility plan will account for growth at the secondary level, but a need for more space will surface quickly in the district’s elementary schools.

Several schools already are over capacity, including , , and schools, and will remain so in the next five years.

It also is projected Prairie Trail Elementary, scheduled to open by the 2012-13 school year, will be over capacity by 21 students one year after it opens.

Schwarz told board members he recommends having a plan in place to address elementary overcrowding by the 2013-14 school year.

“2014-15 is when you begin to fall behind, but you’ll have many issues before this,” Schwarz said.

Superintendent Matthew Wendt said it’s hard to tell if overcrowding is a widespread issue in each school, or if it’s drastically affecting individual classes and grades.

“The point being made is we don’t know where those kids are or what grade level they are,” Wendt said. “It may not be just a capacity issue, but a class size issue, as well.”

Board member Stephanie Jorgensen asked if it is possible to change the existing boundary lines of the two feeder systems, possibly altering them to send kids from overcrowded schools to those with room for additional students.

Wendt said board members would need to form a commission if they wish to alter the boundary lines. The board is able to approve any changes, he said.

“The boundaries you’re looking at now are board-approved,” he said.

Board member Pat Cahill said Schwarz’s presentation would generate discussion among board members.

“We, as a board, need to figure out what we will do,” she said.