Politics Watchers: Short of Gaffe, Magic Moment, Presidential Debate Unlikely to Sway Iowa’s Undecided in Ankeny

For political junkies, presidential debates are must-see TV. The stakes are high.

Skye Alison, an Ankeny Republican who works at Osborne Insurance Agency, said GOP nominee Mitt Romney could stand to gain much by reaching out and addressing a younger audience during the first debate on Wednesday.

“A lot of young Americans today may not have the history of the reasons behind our beginnings,” Alison said. “I hope Mitt will make those clear – maybe even read the important paragraphs of the Declaration of Independence, and forcefully show the contrast and advantages of a free enterprise system versus a government-controlled one.”

Iowa is one of nine states pollsters say remain in play in the 2012 presidential election, but short of a defining gaffe or breakout line, it is likely to remain so after Romney and President Barack Obama square off in their first debate.

The debate is being held at University of Denver in Colorado. Jim Lehrer of NewsHour on PBS will moderate the debate, focused on domestic policy. It begins at 8 p.m. Wednesday, and will be aired on most major networks.

Alison said Romney also needs to extinguish the “fallacy” of the rich not being compassionate when “stating the facts.”

“I hope he will not apologize or take a ‘nice boy back seat’  to Obama’s assertions,” Alison said.

Meanwhile, Gary Schmidt, a member of the Ankeny Area Democrats, said he hopes the debate will offer a “clear choice” between Romney and Obama.

“I think that President Obama will show that he is in command and presidential — that he is one of us, meaning he supports all Americans and not just the privileged few,” Schmidt said.

Schmidt also feels both candidates have much to gain in Wednesday’s debate.

“The president has to seal the deal and Romney needs to come across as not being so arrogant,” Schmidt said. “The polls in the swing states seem to be falling for Romney and he needs to come across as more common.”

Cautious Approach Expected by Candidates

“The entire election is at stake in the debate,” said Terry Dahms, the chairman of the Johnson County Democrats. “Romney has everything on the line. Another gaffe and it's all over for him.”

But even while political watchers something big could happen in Wednesday’s debate and those that follow, being careful not to lose the debates -- rather than winning them -- is the norm for the candidates in front of a national audience.

“I expect extreme caution and nothing really substantive about solutions to any number of problems: national debt, the war, Syria, Israel, China/Japan,” Dahms said. “But it could be interesting, if they would, but they won't.”

Most Iowans Don’t Declare a Party and Most Don’t Watch Debates

Iowa has about 621,000 registered Republicans and 603,000 registered Democrats. Debates are largely a showcase for people who have already made up their minds, presumably largely from within those ranks. The problem is, Iowa has more people registered voters with no party - 666,000 active - than either of the major ones, and many undecided voters don’t watch.

“Relatively few undecided voters actually watch the debates,” said Justin Whitely Holmes, an assistant professor of political science at University of Northern Iowa. “The audience is largely made up of partisans who are just watching to cheer their candidate on.” 

Political observers say the biggest chance the debate has of shaping the election is if one of the candidates screws up (think John Kerry’s, “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it”) or, conversely, one of them has a campaign-defining moment, such as Ronald Reagan’s, “There you go again” quip to Jimmy Carter. 

“This debate is the most important of the series to be held,” said Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University. “Why? Because it's the acid test of how well Mitt Romney can hold up against Obama. Also, it’s the one where neither candidate can make a major visual or oral blooper.”

Still, those moments are rare. 

Candidates Still Have to Sell Voters

Aside from trying not to make a blunder, the first debate will not be a cakewalk for Obama or Romney. They both have work to do.

The candidates will be trying to come across as confident, knowledgeable and, well, presidential. They each will get called on their white elephants of the day - Romney’s 47 percent comment and the notion that the Obama Administration “leads from behind” on key foreign affairs policy, national debt and jobs.

Obama will try to convince voters he has the country going in the right direction, and he deserves four more years. In this debate and others, Romney must show voters he has the better ideas when it comes to job creation and the economy, and he needs to come across as empathetic and likeable, Holmes said.

“Romney needs to do something to shake up the race. He has been trending downward in some recent polls and will need to reverse that,” Holmes said

As the challenger, the former Massachusetts governor is under more pressure, said University of Iowa associate professor of political science Tim Hagle. Republicans want to see him be more aggressive toward Obama.

For many casual voters, debate season is when they begin to pay attention to the election, so it could be a chance for both candidates to reset, particularly Romney.

“The debates may be the first time where people have the opportunity and inclination to tune in,” Hagle said. “Others would argue that people who watch are people who have made up their mind. In that sense, it's Romney who has more at stake. He has to prove himself.”