Iowa 2018 Election Results: Iowa Flips 2 Seats, King Holds On

DES MOINES, IA — Abby Finkenaur, 29, will become the second-youngest member of Congress with unofficial election results showing her winning in Tuesday's midterm election over Iowa District 1 Rep. Rod Blum. Democrat Cindy Axne was projected the winner over incumbent Republican Rep. David Young in the 3rd District, and in the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack was projected to retain his seat.

In a close governor's race, interim Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds became the first woman to be elected governor in the state with a narrow win with 50 percent of the unofficial vote total, compared to 47 percent for Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell.

The big election surprise was the competitive race in the 4th District, where Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten held his own against incumbent Rep. Steve King after outrage over the eight-term congressman's anti-immigrant views and white nationalist associations. King was projected to win a ninth term, but by the slimmest margin ever, 50 percent to 47 percent for Scholten.

The Justice Department dispatched personnel to King's 4th District to monitor compliance with federal election laws. The poll watchers kept an eye on voting in Buena Vista County, which has a large population of immigrants employed in agriculture and the meat packing industry. About 26 percent of the 20,000 residents of the county identified as Hispanic or Latino in 2017, and many are not native English speakers, the Des Moines Register reported.

Some voters reported on Facebook that lines were longer as the polls opened than they had been in previous elections, signaling unprecedented interest in a midterm election that in the past hasn't seen as much voter enthusiasm.

See Also: 2018 Midterm Election A Referendum On 'Trump's GOP'

"Voting rights are constitutional rights, and they’re part of what it means to be an American,” Attorney General Jeff Sessions said in a prepared statement Monday. “The Department of Justice has been entrusted with an indispensable role in securing these rights for the people of this nation. This year we are using every lawful tool that we have, both civil and criminal, to protect the rights of millions of Americans to cast their vote unimpeded at one of more than 170,000 precincts across America."

An Iowa Poll released Sunday showed Hubbell with a narrow 2-point lead, but the poll’s error margin of 3.5 percentage points, making the race a squeaker through Election Day.

Health care is a high-profile issue in the governor’s race, with Hubbell and Reynolds in a fierce battle over Branstand’s decision to turn Medicaid over to private managed care companies two years ago. Costs have nearly tripled, leaving some of the most vulnerable residents without coverage. Des Moines Register editorial writer Andie Dominick won a Pulitzer Prize for her reporting of Medicaid privatization.

“If you look at the polls, Medicaid privatization is a winning issue for Democratic candidates for state office,” Arthur Sanders, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines, told Modern Healthcare. “To the extent that issue brings voters to the polls, those same voters almost certainly have decided the Democratic congressional candidates have better positions on health care.”

Reynolds generally polls well among evangelical Christians — the same base that supports King — and she has been criticized for not removing him as one of her campaign co-chairs. On the defensive after King made headlines last week for his extremist views, Reynolds said she’s made clear that she “strongly disagrees” with King’s comments, but said she “can’t be held responsible for everyone’s comments, I can be held responsible for myself.”

But she appeared with King at an Election Day-eve rally in Sioux City Monday night

4th District: Scholten Challenges King

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 4, also showed that 45 percent of likely Iowa voters statewide said they planned to support a Democrat in congressional races, while 39 percent said they would vote for a Republican.

The margin was wider in King’s 4th District, an unnamed Republican candidate leads the Democratic candidate by 4 points. That shows support for King waning, as Reynolds was leading Hubbell by 9 points in the 4th District.

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 4 gave King a 5-point advantage and an Emerson College Poll gave him a 9-point lead, according to Real Clear Politics. Change Research, which conducts polls for progressive candidates, said last week Scholten had pulled within 1 point, which was enough for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report to change its rating in Iowa's 4th District from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican."

Within the 4th District, King still had strong support from older farmers, but others painted him as increasingly out of touch with the workforce gaps immigrants fill in towns like many in his district, including Denison, where half of the town’s 8,400 residents were Latino or Hispanic, according to 2016 U.S. Census estimates. Iowa has the second-lowest unemployment rate, but also hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs.

King’s rhetoric is contrary to both the economic vitality of the town and the way people feel, Denison Mayor Jared Beymer, 24, told the Des Moines Register. A registered Democrat, Beymer told the newspaper he voted for Reynolds, but not King.

“I think people are realizing that we have a problem, Breymer said. “It's difficult when he's out there saying things that completely contradict how we feel in Denison.”

Last week, even leading Republicans and some donors abandoned King. Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers, the chairman of the Republican National Congressional Committee, said the group would no longer support King — a remarkable development given the stakes for the GOP in the midterm election.

“Congressman Steve King’s recent comments, actions, and retweets are completely inappropriate,” Stivers tweeted. “We must stand up against white supremacy and hate in all forms, and I strongly condemn this behavior.”

King bristled at a candidate forum in Des Moines and asked in Trumpesque fashion that a questioner he called an “ambusher” be kicked out of the room of reporters, businesspeople and constituents. The Iowa State University student who lives in Ames, which includes King’s district, attempted to ask the congressman if his rhetoric had helped inflame anti-semitic passions that included the Oct. 27 killing of 11 Jews outside the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh.

King had been the subject of a recent Washington Post story that said he met in Austria with the Freedom Party, whose original leaders were Nazis and which espouses strong anti-immigration views. King pushed back against the suggestion the Freedom Party includes anti-Semites, saying they have been purged from the organization except for one person who had been involved in anti-Semitic activities as a youth.

The Washington Post stood by its story.

Democrats in other congressional races are making health care coverage for Iowans with pre-existing conditions a key issue.

Here’s a look at Iowa’s other three congressional races:

1st District: Finkenaur Challenges Blum

In Iowa’s 1st District, incumbent Republican Rod Blum, 63, who is seeking his third term, is challenged by state Rep. Abby Finkenauer, 29, in the northeast Iowa district that had been reliably Democratic until Republicans’ 2014 midterm election sweep.

FiveThirtyEight says Finkenauer has a 9 in 10 chance of winning the race, one of the most closely watched in the country as Democrats look to regain control of the House. Recent polls from Emerson College and Siena College/The New York Times both give the advantage to Finkenaur at 53 percent and 48 percent, respectively.

Blum is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbent Republicans seeking election in the midterm election. He is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, which isn’t expected to announce its decision until well after Election Day. He is accused of violating House ethics rules by failing to disclose his ownership role in Tin Moon Corp., a new internet company that featured his top federal staffer in false testimony promoting its services, The Associated Press reported. Among the services Tin Moon promises to help companies cited for federal food and drug safety violations bury Food and Drug Administration warning letters below positive internet search results.

Blum has called the investigation a “crusade of personal destruction” by the “radical left” over a clerical error on a form. In a statement, he said he immediately notified the House Ethics Committee that he had corrected the error and apologized.

Both candidates are Dubuque natives, and both have made health care a centerpiece of their campaigns.

Finkenaur wants a government-run insurance program added to the private insurance options under the Affordable Care Act, an idea rejected by a Democratic-controlled Congress. Blum says it’s important to protect patients with pre-existing conditions.

“Our bill that we passed in the House — and it didn’t make it to the Senate, so it never became law — had multiple ways to protect people with pre-existing conditions,” Blum told the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. “The only thing we ask of people is to be a little bit responsible and make sure you maintain continuous coverage.”

Blum also has touted a strong economy with “more job openings than people looking for jobs,” but Finkenaur says they’re low-wage positions and parents of middle- and lower-income families are “working multiple jobs trying just to have enough money to send their kids to baseball and softball practice.”

She also criticized the growing trade war, which she says so far has cost the state $2.2 billion in agricultural sales, and said the Republican tax bill Blum voted for have 83 percent of the benefits to the top 1 percent of wage earners and corporations.

Blum told the newspaper his and other Republicans’ records on the tax cuts have been distorted.

“The misconception is that since we had tax cuts in this country we’re now going to have to cut Social Security and Medicare,” Blum said. “In fact revenues are going to probably double over the next 10 years.”

2nd District: Peters Challenges Loebsack

There’s little polling in Iowa’s 2nd District, where FiveThirtyEight gives incumbent Democrat Dave Loebsack, 65, a 79 in 80 chance of winning. The six-term congressman is challenged by Republican Christopher Peters, 58, a Coralville surgeon.

An Emerson College poll of likely voters from Oct. 29-Nov. 1 showed 53 percent favor Loebsack, up from 45 percent in September.

This is the second time Peters has challenged the Iowa City Democrat.

“Our politics is broken,” Peters said at a candidate forum last month, noting partisan bickering that has given the president more power in directing national policy. “I think we need to change that dynamic.”

Peters said he disagrees with Trump’s use of tariffs to negotiate better trade deals, but is better able to work with Trump.

“I think Mr. Loebsack is unlikely to even get an audience or have a working relationship with him,” Peters said, noting however, that he wouldn’t shy away from bucking the Republican Party if policies went against the interest of his constituents.

“Just marching in lockstep with the Republican Party, that’s not my motivation,” he said.

Loebsack has made the dismantling of the Affordable Care Act a cornerstone of his campaign, saying at a candidates’ forum last month that millions of Americans, especially those with pre-existing conditions, got coverage under President Obama’s signature health care act.

“I think there are improvements to be made, but I think we have to keep the Affordable Care Act and build upon it,” Loebsack said, adding the government should give states the authority to work on their own plans.

He also sees immigration as one solution to the worker shortage in his state and elsewhere.

“We have a worker shortage. Not all the jobs out there are going to be filled by native Iowans,” Loebsack told the Knoxville Journal-Express. “Part of immigration reform has to be being more open to folks who want to come in and work in those jobs to keep those plants running.”

He said he supports stronger border security, but believes drones, lighting and fences are more effective than a border wall.

“We do have to secure the border,” he told the Knoxville newspaper. “I just don’t think the wall is the way to do that.”

3rd District: Axne Challenges Young

Businesswoman and former Iowa state government worker Cindy Axne, 53, is the Democrats’ nominee in this closely watched congressional race. Republican incumbent David Young, 50, won the seat in the 2014 midterm election and is seeking his third term.

FiveThirtyEight gives Axne a 7 in 10 chance of upsetting Young, but polls are close. A polling average on Real Clear Politics favors Axne by 1.5 points in the contentious race.

Like other Democrats running for Congress in Iowa, Axne has made affordable, high-quality health care that covers pre-existing conditions a top issue.

“He voted to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, which covers people with preexisting conditions,” Axne said of Young in a debate last month. “He voted for the disastrous Republican health care bill that he actually lied to Iowans and said he would not vote for, and then turned around in the middle of the night and voted for it.”

Young said that wasn’t an accurate representation.

“Cindy, what you’re saying is just not true and you are scaring people right now,” the Van Meter Republican said at the debate. “The amendment that I had passed had four layers of protections: one, to make sure that those with preexisting conditions could not be discriminated against and not be allowed to have insurance, two, to ensure that they weren’t priced differently, three, the state was granted a waiver from the affordable care act, they had to have protections for preexisting conditions, and four, if folks couldn’t afford their health insurance for any reason with preexisting conditions there was a fund there to make sure that their bills were covered. That amendment passed. That amendment had my name on it.”

Many medical, physicians and patient rights groups have argued the amendment doesn’t really offer those protections because it wouldn’t require insurers to charge the same rates that healthy people pay, and groups like the American Medical Association and AARP have warned sick people would face rates so high only the wealthy would be able to afford premiums.

The Associated Press contributed reporting.

Lead photo: Drake University student Camryn Kubicki applies a sticker to her hat after voting at a polling station in Des Moines. The election will determine if Republicans or Democrats will control the House of Representatives. (Photo by Joshua Lott/Getty Images)