Gingrich Staff Exodus, Romney Decision Provides Path for Pawlenty Win in Iowa

DES MOINES — Several Iowa Republican activists predict that Tim Pawlenty stands the best chance of getting Iowa's nod for the 2012 Republican nomination for president, following resignations this week of all of Newt Gingrich's Iowa campaign staff and a decision by Mitt Romney not to compete in the Iowa Straw Poll.

"It's clearly Tim Pawlenty," said former Republican gubernatorial candidate Christian Fong of Cedar Rapids, who hasn't publicly backed a candidate. "It's Pawlenty versus Romney in New Hampshire, and I think the same story is developing here. Once Newt Gingrich gets out or is weakened to the point where a lot of his team is unable to organize Iowa effectively, Tim Pawlenty is the one with momentum."

All six of Gingrich's Iowa campaign staff members quit Thursday, citing dissatisfaction over the former U.S. House speaker's lack of willingness to invest time campaigning here. That happened the same day that the Romney campaign announced that the former Massachusetts governor will not participate in the Iowa Straw Poll.

Gov. Terry Branstad on Friday frowned on both of those developments during an appearance on Iowa Public Television's "Iowa Press" show. After a rocky 17-stop campaign kickoff across Iowa, Gingrich took a two-week cruise around the Greek islands. Branstad called it a missed opportunity.

"His campaign's in real trouble," Branstad said of Gingrich. "Obviously (he) got off to a bad start and then he took a big vacation. I think that was a big mistake, and now I think a lot of the staff has just kind of had it. Whether this is the end for the campaign or not, I don't know, but it doesn't look very good. I think you do a cruise after the campaign's over, not before. If he really wanted to sustain, get things back on track, he should have stayed with it and not taken an extended vacation."

As for Romney's decision to skip the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll in Ames, which is considered the first test of a candidate's organizational strength, Branstad said that strategy hasn't worked in the past. Both Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani skipped Iowa in 2008.

"Last time, (former Arkansas Gov. Mike) Huckabee coming in second in the straw poll gave him some momentum, and he ended up winning the Iowa caucuses. So whoever does well in the straw poll may well become a contender to rival Romney, who right now is the front-runner even ahead of (President Barack) Obama in some of the polls," Branstad said. "Those people that diminish importance of Iowa and have tried to circumvent the state in the past and that hasn't worked. It is important to compete."

While Branstad has vowed to remain neutral in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, his spokesman, Tim Albrecht, on Friday predicted a win by Pawlenty. Albrecht was the communications director for Romney's 2008 campaign.

Pawlenty supporters cite the cultural affinity between the two Midwestern states of Iowa and Minnesota, and Pawlenty's executive experience and track record of getting things done as a former Minnesota governor.

"It's a pretty clear momentum shift from Newt's camp and Romney's camp to Pawlenty," Fong said. "A lot of things can happen, but Newt Gingrich doesn't have a team, Romney doesn't have a plan — and who's left?"

Former Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Rich Schwarm of Lake Mills, a senior adviser to Romney in the 2008 campaign, told IowaPolitics.com that he was really hoping until Thursday that Romney would participate vigorously in Iowa.

With that not happening, Schwarm said the race boils down to four people: Pawlenty, Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Godfather's Pizza Chief Executive Officer Herman Cain and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

"Pawlenty, Bachmann, Cain and Santorum all have really good chances now of winning or getting second place," said Schwarm, who was the state GOP chairman from 1989 to 1995. "If I had to guess at this point, right now, our two neighbors from Minnesota, Pawlenty and Bachmann, probably at this point have the edge."

The quickly shifting race could invalidate other recent poll results.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 481 Iowa Republican primary voters released June 1 showed Romney leading with 21 percent, followed by Cain and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 15 percent, Gingrich with 12 percent, Bachmann with 11 percent, Pawlenty with 10 percent, Paul with 8 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman with almost no support. Public Policy Polling provides polling for political races nationwide, according to its website.

The poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, came right after Huckabee and real estate tycoon Donald Trump decided against running. But it came before the news that Huntsman would skip Iowa, Gingrich had a staff exodus and Romney would skip the Iowa Straw Poll.

Schwarm said he saw Gingrich as a person with great ideas and was disappointed with Gingrich's Iowa staff resigning Thursday. Schwarm said Gingrich will no longer be competitive in Iowa, and Gingrich may base his campaign on talk shows and the Internet.

"We're maybe a little spoiled in Iowa," Schwarm said. "We like to see them in person."

Fong also said Gingrich's former Iowa campaign team is up for grabs. Iowa campaign strategists are highly sought after once the caucus campaign gets under way. Those who left Thursday were Craig Schoenfeld, Katie Koberg, Paige Thorson, Daniel Weiser, Ryan Keller and Joe Heuertz. Will Rogers left a week ago.

"He can't recover from this," Fong said of Gingrich.

Bob Anderson, Chair of the Johnson County Republican Central Committee, told Iowa City Patch Friday that it might be too soon to count out Gingrich, noting that John McCain went through similar transition pains in 2008 before winning the eventual nomination.

 "I don't think anything that has happened to Speaker Gingrich is fatal, it just makes the challenges a little harder for him to overcome," Anderson said.

Anderson said he agreed, though, that in a campaign sure to be heavy on the economic rhetoric, Pawlenty's organization in the state and recent comments on the economy make him a legitimate contender in Iowa.

"While I wouldn't handicap anyone as a front-runner, [Pawlenty] needs to be a considered a very strong candidate in this race," Anderson said.

-- Lynn Campbell, IowaPolitics.com.