Ron Paul Continues Polling Well, Fights Claims that his Support has a Ceiling

By Lynn Campbell
Iowapolitics.com

With roughly six weeks to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, two polls show Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul as one of the front-runners in Iowa, even as most of the national media have written him off.

Paul is seeking the Republican nomination for president in the 2012 national contest.

"Congressman Paul's secret weapon is his organization and the dedication of his supporters. That's huge in politics," said Republican Party of Iowa Co-Chairman Bill Schickel of Mason City.

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Paul returned here Friday, a day after a poll by Iowa State University, the Gazette and KCRG-TV9 showed his support at 20.4 percent among 377 likely Iowa caucus-goers. That was second only to former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain's 24.5 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in third, at 16.3 percent. The Nov. 1-13 poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

"I think it's very significant," Paul said Friday on WHO radio, where he was interviewed by conservative talk show host Jan Mickelson. "It goes along with what we have found in our own polls in over a couple of months, that we're doing quite well and we've never been second-tier in the last three months in Iowa or New Hampshire. That's where I spend my money. That's where I spend my time."

The ISU poll results parallel those of a Bloomberg News poll released Tuesday, which showed Paul with support from 19 percent of 503 likely Iowa caucus-goers, second to Cain's 20 percent. The difference fell within the Nov. 10-12 poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. That poll put Romney in third at 18 percent, and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich in fourth at 17 percent.

"One of the things about Paul is his support," said Iowa State University political science professor James McCormick. "He's got about 50 percent who are definitely committed to him. Nobody else has more."

In contrast, McCormick said the poll showed that 17 percent of Cain's supporters are firm in their decision, compared to Romney's 13 percent.

Paul placed second at the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll, falling 152 votes short of winner Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in that early test of organizational strength three months ago.

"I think to his credit, he's putting a focus on Iowa," Schickel said. "He showed his ability to deliver votes at the straw poll. He has been able to demonstrate that in other polls and in other venues. That's why I think his prospects in the caucuses are quite good."

This is Paul's third bid for president. He ran as a libertarian in 1988 and a Republican in 2008. McCormick said Paul attracts supporters younger than 44, and moderate voters.

"Where he catches fire is when he's talking about getting rid of the tax code, and the size of government," McCormick said. "That's an issue his time is ripe for."

In the WHO radio interview, Mickelson also said Paul has an extremely aggressive, dedicated core of supporters.

"They crawl over broken glass for you," Mickelson quipped.

But Paul said the thousands of people he speaks to at college campuses are supporting him more for his issues and less for his personality.

"They understand what I'm saying about personal liberty, about a different foreign policy, about the Federal Reserve, sound money, a limited government, cutting spending, following the Constitution," Paul said.

Yet two other polls this week pegged Paul's support as half of what was indicated by the previous two.

A Rasmussen Reports poll of 700 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers put Paul in fourth place with 10 percent of support behind Gingrich at 32 percent, Romney at 19 percent and Cain at 13 percent. The poll, taken Tuesday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In addition, a poll released Monday by Republican firm the polling company inc. in Washington, D.C., showed Paul tied with Bachmann in fourth place, with support by 10 percent of 501 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers. The Nov. 11-13 poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The view by the national media that Paul is not a front-runner led him to receive limited air time in the most recent Republican presidential debate. After the CBS/National Journal debate last weekend, Paul's campaign expressed outrage that the Texas congressman was only given 90 seconds of speaking time in the one-hour debate.

"CBS's treatment of Congressman Paul is disgraceful, especially given that (the) debate centered on foreign policy and national security," Jesse Benton, Paul's national campaign chairman, said in a statement.

McCormick said he believes there's a ceiling on how much support Paul can get as a non-traditional candidate.

"He is considered so far out of the mainstream on his foreign policy views, his views in terms of isolationism or neoisolationism," McCormick said. "It's just not going to go beyond a certain percentage of the public."

See the Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll:
http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2011/nov/ISUpoll

See the Rasmussen Reports poll:
http://tinyurl.com/3n64abm

See the Bloomberg News poll:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rAlZLpulDeLk