Who Will Be the Next Presidential Candidate to Bow Out?

By Hannah Hess 
IowaPolitics.com

IOWA CITY – The exit of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty from the 2012 Republican presidential campaign after a disappointing third-place finish at the Ames Straw Poll has launched a guessing game about who will fall next. 

Since the first Ames Straw Poll in 1979, the person who placed first or second in Ames went on to win the Iowa caucuses.

But former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, who placed fourth with 1,657 of the 16,892 votes cast, and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, who placed fifth with 1,456, are refusing to bow to history. 

“We don’t have all the money and the flashy cars that drive by, but what we do have is a hard-working candidate, perhaps the hardest working candidate there is,” said Cody Brown, Santorum’s Iowa campaign director. 

The Pennsylvanian was Iowa’s most frequent visitor leading up to the Ames Straw Poll, spending a whopping 57 days in the state. 

He picked up his wife and seven children and moved to the Hawkeye state in late July. He visited 68 of Iowa’s 99 counties on a bus tour, holding 111 town hall meetings and rallies in libraries, coffee shops and living rooms around the state. 

Far from discouraged with collecting less than 10 percent of the votes in Ames, Santorum has branded himself the “little engine that could,” and said he hopes to be the first candidate to put his shoes on the terrain of all 99 counties. 

“We are the retail politicking campaign,” Brown said. 

Cain's charisma carries him through 

Cain’s supporters make the same argument, when asked if the Georgia businessman has the stamina to carry his message through to the Feb. 6 Iowa Caucuses. 

“I’ve dealt with a lot of these campaigns, and I can say that Herman Cain is one of the most personable candidates,” said Pottawattamie County Chairman Jeff Jorgenson, who endorsed Cain in July. “He lingers after every event — answering questions, shaking hands — that’s just the type of candidate he is.” 

Cain’s charisma resulted in high rankings on early polls of Republican voters. Two polls, conducted June 19-22 for the Des Moines Register and June 26-30 for The Iowa Republican, a conservative news site, showed Cain running third. 

But internal problems have proven to be a challenge, Jorgenson acknowledged. The exodus of two top Iowa campaign staff members in early July — his state campaign director and straw poll director — caused murmurs of an end to his campaign. 

Cain intensified his presence in the state shortly before the straw poll, appearing in a televised forum co-hosted by IowaPolitics.com and taking a week-long bus tour. He traveled more than 1,800 miles through the state, shaking hands and inviting voters to rally with him for the straw poll. He said he needed to place in the top three. 

Yet shortly after his fifth-place finish in the straw poll, Cain cast an optimistic tone in his weekly syndicated column, saying he had no intentions of dropping out and that “predictions of the demise of my campaign are all self folly.” 

Jorgenson predicted that once the field is cleared of other candidates, Cain’s business resume, which includes saving Godfather’s Pizza from the brink of bankruptcy, would help him shine. 

“He’s a problem-solver,” said Jorgenson, who lists the economy and taxes as two of his greatest concerns. “He’s done it in the business world, and I just don’t see a politician doing what needs to be done to get this problem going.” 

Cain cast himself as a “Washington outsider” during his straw poll push, telling voters that never having held a public office gave him a common-sense approach to problems and the ability to propose new solutions. 

Backed by social conservatives 

Santorum, by contrast, has sought to set himself apart by focusing on socially conservative topics such as abortion and same-sex marriage, and reminding listeners along the trail that “moral laws” govern actions. 

These positions won him the support of Republican National Committeewoman Kim Lehman, who formerly served as president of the anti-abortion advocacy group Iowa Right to Life. 

“He has experience. He’s personable. He listens, and he is unchanging,” Lehman said of Santorum. 

Lehman said Santorum proved his commitment to key social conservative issues on the ground in Iowa. Last year, the Pennsylvanian crisscrossed Iowa on a bus tour urging the recall of three Iowa Supreme Court justices who were part of the unanimous 2009 decision to legalize same-sex marriage. 

Iowans subsequently voted to oust the justices. 

Lehman said despite Santorum’s fourth-place finish at the Ames Straw Poll, he still has momentum because of his strong record from his four years in the U.S. House and 12 in the U.S. Senate, despite losing his last bid for re-election. 

Lagging in campaign fundraising 

Both Cain and Santorum are lagging the other candidates in fundraising. 

According to disclosures with the Federal Election Commission, Cain raised nearly $2.6 million in the second quarter of the year but spent almost $2.1 million and had $481,894 at the end of June. 
Santorum raised only $582,348 between April and June, and had $229,115 left at the end of June. 

In contrast, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney reported raising nearly $18.3 million during those same three months. And Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann raised about $4 million, through both her presidential and congressional campaigns. 

“If (Santorum and Cain) exceed expectations and continue steadily picking up support, there’s a chance to gain momentum in the fundraising arm,” Rich Schwarm, a former Republican Party of Iowa chairman from Lake Mills. 

With the national spotlight fixed on powerhouse fundraisers and poll leaders, candidates in the middle of the pack like Santorum and Cain are expected to work hard on their ground game. 

Gaining momentum with retail politics will be key to exceeding expectations for both Santorum and Cain, Schwarm said, reflecting on the changed landscape of the 2012 battle for the Republican nomination. 

“Iowans expect to be involved in the process and have people go around and meet with them personally,” Schwarm said.

That means Iowans can expect to see a lot more of Santorum and Cain before Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, scheduled for Feb. 6. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who did not participate in the straw poll but received 385 votes for an eighth-place finish in Ames, remains in the race. He has been absent from Iowa recently, screening his film in California, then heading to Hawaii with his wife. 

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman did not compete in Ames and plans to skip Iowa with his campaign. He placed ninth. 

Also in the field is Michigan U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter, who has only been campaigning since July 2. He purchased a tent space in Ames and placed 10th in the straw poll with 35 votes. 

WHO WILL BE NEXT? Tell us in the comments below.