Election 2012: Boswell-Latham Race in Iowa’s 3rd District a Toss-Up

By all accounts, Tuesday’s matchup between a pair of congressional incumbents will be a nail biter.

It’s one of only two in the country in which redistricting pits a pair of incumbents against one another. After Iowa lost a district in the 2010 census, 4th District Congressman Tom Latham moved into the new 3rd District to take on Democrat Leonard Boswell in a campaign that is both expensive and contentious.

Both have an agriculture background and a long tenure in Congress — Boswell, 78, has served for 15 years and Latham, 64, has been in the House of Representatives for 17 years.

It’s a bellwether race that illustrates Iowa’s high-profile status this election season, as a swing district in a swing state. Both Boswell and Latham are looking for the same breakthrough moment as the Obama-Biden and Romney-Ryan campaigns.

Latham Has Registration, Financial Edge

Latham appears to have a slight edge in both party registration and fundraising.

But Boswell is a traditionally tough campaigner with a reputation for surviving politically tough situations in the past

“But this is a really tight spot,” the National Journal said earlier this fall. The independent Washington, D.C., political news organization has upgraded the race to the 16th from the 18th most competitive House race in the country.

“Boswell needs to hold onto nearly all of the district's Obama voters to win, and reports suggest Latham is winning enough to his side,” according to the report. “The seat is too evenly split for Republicans to feel comfortable, but Latham is in a good position.”

Indeed, Republicans have an edge over both registered Democrats and voters who did not declare a party. Here’s how registrations shake out:

• Active Republicans: 164,646
• Active Democrats: 153,357
• Active No-Party: 146,268
• Inactive Republicans: 10,790
• Inactive Democrats: 14,528
• Inactive No-Party: 19,154

Here’s a look at campaign finances from Jan. 1, 2011 to the last reporting period, which ended on Oct. 17. Search the Federal Elections Commission database for more information.

Boswell had receipts of $1,558,153. Of that:

• $810,587 came from individuals
• $739,011 came from PACs
• $2,180 came from the Democratic Party
• $6,375 came from “other”

Latham had receipts of $3,211,986. Of that:

• $1,110,798 came from individuals
• $2,029,655 came from PACs
• $5,950 came from the Republican Party
• $65,573 came from “other”

The juggernaut GOP-affiliated group Crossroads GPS has included Iowa’s 3rd District in its massive $8.1 million television and radio effort for House Republicans that started airing ads last month.

FEC records show independent groups spent $1.3 million in August, September and so far in October supporting Latham with TV, newspaper and radio advertising, direct mail, polling and consulting services.

It’s one of the costliest races in the country, CNN reported.

“The cash advantage is apparent on the airwaves, where Latham has outspent Boswell, even when counting the considerable assistance the Democrat has received from his national party," CNN said, but it also noted the district isn't as friendly to Boswell as in the past because it leans more heavily Republican.

Despite being outmatched financially, Boswell’s campaign manager Kevin McTigue told the Des Moines Register last month the campaign has purchased “more than enough advertising time for the final weeks to be competitive and with polling showing a tied race.”

The Boswell campaign is also counting on a heavy Democratic turnout operation. Democrats typically do well in Polk County, the most populous area in the 3rd District – which also includes the least populated area in Iowa, Adams County along Iowa’s southern border.

CNN said the presidential race will boost Democratic turnout, but noted the new 3rd District has many more “red” counties than the one Boswell represented for the past decade and said “the race will be competitive.”

No Clear Winner Among Pundits

The Cook Political Report is still calling the race a toss-up leaning toward Latham. In September, columnist David Wasserman wrote that House Speaker John Boehner’s “No. 1 priority” is returning Latham to Congress and the Democratic Party is equally committed to Boswell’s re-election, but private polls showed Latham has “opened up a lead in the high single digits to low double digits.”

“While Democrats' House Majority PAC has tried to prop Boswell up, there's no escaping the fact Latham was able to stockpile his campaign cash over the last decade while Boswell had to empty his during each of his competitive races,” Wasserman wrote. “The resulting ad disparity is making a difference now.”

The Benenson Strategy Group released a poll in late September that said the two candidates were tied at 45 percent each. Latham’s favorability rating was slightly higher – 39 percent, compared 34 for Boswell – and he got a higher job approval rating among the 400 registered voters surveyed for the poll. Latham had a job approval rating of 34 percent, compared with a 29 percent job approval rating for Boswell.

However, Boswell led among those not registered as Democrats or Republicans, 49 percent, compared to 34 percent for Latham.

Roll Call calls it  a toss-up, noting that while Boswell may have a geographic advantage because he has represented parts of the newly configured district in the past, Latham has a voter registration and cash advantage.