First-Time Voters Crush on Trump, But Will They Caucus?

IOWA CITY, IA – Less than a week before the Iowa Caucuses, Republican frontrunner paraded members of the University of Iowa football and wrestling teams, some of whom later endorsed him, before an enthusiastic crowd at the UI Field House Tuesday.

The Twisted Sister anthem, “We’re Not Going to Take It,” often a soundtrack for the bombastic billionaire’s unorthodox, rebel campaign, blared as Trump took the stage before a crowd of about 1,900.

Trump appeals to legions of first-time voters who value the candidate’s anti-establishment stances, competitiveness and ruthless disparagement of his political rivals and others who disagree with him. The candidate peppers his stump speeches with insults, calling everyone from those who disagree with him to the leaders of China “losers” and worse.

Well, no, 18-year-old Tate Moyer conceded in an interview with CNN in which he explained the candidate’s appeal to first-time voters, “it probably wouldn’t be wise to call other leaders losers.”

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Another 18-year-old, Turner Eakins, told CNN he’s solidly behind behind Trump and appreciates his competitiveness and determination to shore up the trade imbalance with China.

“His competitiveness shows he wants what is best for the country,” Eakins said. “He really wants to win.”

Later in the interview, Eakins said: “I don’t know what it would take for me not to vote for him.”

Eakins said young voters want a candidate who seems to be looking toward the future.

“Eighteen-year-olds, we really value action and who’s going to come through,” he said. “For us, that’s Trump. I mean, he walked out to ‘We’re Not Going to Take It’.”

Another young voter, Brody Book, told CNN he likes Trump’s provocative, uncensored speech.

It wasn’t a campuswide lovefest for the candidate at the Iowa City appearance, though.

A 28-year-old man was arrested on disorderly conduct charges by campus police and turned over to the Secret Service after throwing two tomatoes at Trump, the UI campus newspaper, The Daily Iowan, reported. The protester missed his target, though.

Trump took a moment at the rally to first praise then degenerate protesters, saying first that they’re the only way the media represent the magnitude of his draw, according to a report in The Daily Iowan.

“Oh no, not again, throw them the hell out of here,” Trump said later when some members of the crowd interrupted his speech with shrill whistles. “Am I allowed to rip that whistle out of the mouth? Should somebody do that.”

But Will They Caucus?

But whether Trump can turn boisterous support at rallies into votes in Monday night’s caucuses isn’t a given. A new Iowa State University/WHO-HD poll released Tuesday showed Trump with trailing Texas Sen. Ted Cruz among likely caucus goers. The poll said 25.8 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers said they would back Cruz, while 18.9 percent said they’d support Trump.

Getting his supporters to the caucuses could be a problem for Trump.

“Trump has done an excellent job of motivating non-traditional Republicans and people who don’t typically vote to support him and attend his rallies. However, our poll has shown – twice now – that he is not the leading candidate among people who are the most likely to go out on caucus night,” ISU assistant professor of political science David J. Anderson said. “Trump probably has more supporters than other Republican candidates overall in Iowa, but if those supporters don’t show up to caucus it just won’t matter. It is not just popularity that wins the caucus; it is turning out your supporters.”

A Real Clear Politics average of polls tells a different story, showing Trump’s supporters among likely caucus-goers at 33 percent, compared to 27 percent for Cruz.

Nationally, Trump’s campaign hit a new high in a new CNN/ORC Poll released Tuesday that showed Trump has the support of 41 percent of Republican voters. His support is strong among both men and women, younger and older voters, white evangelicals, conservatives and self-identified Republicans and independents who lean Republican.

» Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons